Baltimore @ Toronto Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 5th-worst ballpark in the game for lefty batting average. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. Gunnar Henderson has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 4.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The #5 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Hitting from the same side that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, George Springer meets a tough challenge in today's game. In the past 14 days, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.

The #5 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Batting from the same side that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have a tough matchup in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Davis Schneider will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Davis Schneider's launch angle in recent games (41.3° over the last 7 days) is a significant increase over his 22° seasonal figure. Davis Schneider has been unlucky this year, posting a .299 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .324 — a .025 deviation.

Joey Loperfido's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Joey Loperfido is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Joey Loperfido will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Grayson Rodriguez today. Joey Loperfido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Joey Loperfido will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Spencer Horwitz's batting average talent is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Spencer Horwitz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Spencer Horwitz will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Spencer Horwitz will hold that advantage in today's game.

Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Daulton Varsho will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Grayson Rodriguez in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's matchup. There has been a significant improvement in Daulton Varsho's launch angle from last season's 20.3° to 26.7° this year. Daulton Varsho's launch angle lately (31.3° over the last 7 days) is significantly better than his 26.7° seasonal figure.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 91st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.4°, Cedric Mullins II has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 30.6° mark over the past 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins II's true offensive skill to be a .313, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .029 disparity between that figure and his actual .284 wOBA.

Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage over Grayson Rodriguez today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Addison Barger has suffered from bad luck this year. His .247 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .286.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Bassitt throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jackson Holliday has been hot recently, putting up a a 23.1% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) over the last week. Posting a 97.7-mph average exit velocity in the past week's worth of games, Jackson Holliday has been in great form recently.

Ernie Clement's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Ernie Clement's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.8-mph over the course of the season to 93.3-mph of late. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 43.8% on the season to 54% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's game. In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Colton Cowser is ranked in the 90th percentile for hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Eloy Jimenez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Eloy Jimenez's 60.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.7%. Despite posting a .291 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Eloy Jimenez has experienced some negative variance given the .034 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. There has been a significant improvement in Adley Rutschman's launch angle from last year's 12.5° to 17.8° this season. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Adley Rutschman's 55.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.8%.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Anthony Santander has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.7-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Anthony Santander's launch angle from last season's 20° to 23.9° this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 23.9°, Anthony Santander has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 29.1° angle in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Ryan Mountcastle has notched a .267 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. This year, the hardest ball Ryan Mountcastle has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.5 mph (an advanced metric to assess power), grading out in the 83rd percentile. Placing in the 76th percentile, Ryan Mountcastle sits with a .268 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Alejandro Kirk will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Alejandro Kirk has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year's 90.6-mph average.

Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest.

Among all major league parks, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 6th-shallowest. Over the last two weeks, Ramon Urias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph of late. Posting a 2.21 K/BB rate this year, Ramon Urias has demonstrated strong plate discipline, ranking in the 76th percentile.