MLB Picks

The Under cashed in Wednesday's game, and it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Tigers won't be allowing many runs with Skubal on the hill. The bullpen was also elite after Casey Mize exited in Game 2 of the series. Sproat has calmed down lately, and while I do expect Detroit to score runs off him, it won't be a ton. 

Wrigley Field has to be on the HR card today, as it’s easily the best setting for a dinger. Double-digit winds are blowing out to left field, which should aid hitters going that way, and Edward Cabrera is a flyball pitcher who has been lucky so far with zero homers allowed. On the Philadelphia Phillies side, both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have gone deep vs. Cabrera, but I’ll take Harper at a 110-point discount. Adolis García (+410) also projects well, but I’m not getting cute — sticking with the top-end bats. There are plenty of lefties in the Chicago Cubs bullpen, and Harper has been better vs. lefties this year. His 42% hard-hit rate leads Philly hitters, and I’m rolling with brand-name bats today.

The New York Yankees bats have a chance to do damage at Fenway Park today with Payton Tolle starting for the Boston Red Sox. The lefty is filling in for an injured Sonny Gray, and if his prior MLB numbers are any indication, he’s likely to give up homers. Tolle allowed five long balls over 16+ innings last year, and Boston could be leaning on its B-bullpen as a decent home dog. When it comes to Yankees hitters, Ben Rice might not be the obvious top option, but it’s hard not to call him their best bat right now. He’s second on the team in homers and has four over the last seven days. He also leads the club in wRC+, wOBA, and WAR, while slugging .743. He’s not just hot — he’s been one of the most productive hitters in baseball to start the season. At +520, he’s my favorite look in a strong home-run spot for New York.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are offering strong expected value today, trading at +140 with a fair price closer to +111, per THE BAT. It’s easy to see why. The starting pitching gap isn’t as wide as it looks, with Bubba Chandler trending up after a slow start, while Jacob deGrom lasted just 12 outs last time and is averaging around 85 pitches per start.  deGrom is great, but might be too priced in considering a potential 90-pitch leash. Both bullpens rate above league average, and Pittsburgh has nearly a full group available. Offensively, there isn’t a clear edge for the Texas Rangers. deGrom’s reputation is too priced in for a pitcher who may not go deep, making +140 too long for a capable Pirates side.