All Picks
NFL
NCAAF
MLB
NBA
NCAAB
NHL
CFL
WNBA
Golf
World Cup
What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 25, 2026.
New
Computer Picks powered by
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+125 
|
o6.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -190 
|
|
4.01 |
-134
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +180 
|
Baltimore
NY Yankees
Top Projection
Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total RBIs (+429)
o0.5+475
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
-115 
|
o6.5 -105
|
-1.5 +162
|
|
4.33 |
+102 
|
u6.5 -106
|
+1.5 -181 
|
Chi. Cubs
Boston
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.99 |
+145
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.64 |
-162
|
u6.5 +100 
|
-1.5 +145 
|
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
-108
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.25 |
-106
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +150
|
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-134
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.76 |
+120
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -132
|
NY Mets
Washington
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.59 |
+116
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.26 |
-134
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cincinnati
Toronto
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-122
|
o8.0 -112
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.22 |
+106
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -162
|
Atlanta
Miami
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
-129
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.07 |
+120
|
u8.0 -124
|
+1.5 -148
|
Cleveland
Kansas City
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+194
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -106
|
|
5.05 |
-200
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
Chi. White Sox
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+155
|
o7.5 -129
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.49 |
-172
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +128
|
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Top Projection
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-108
|
o7.5 -114
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.59 |
-105
|
u7.5 -103
|
-1.5 +150
|
Texas
Minnesota
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.63 |
-170
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.91 |
+149
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
Houston
Athletics
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+116
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.18 |
-134
|
u7.5 -112
|
-1.5 +168
|
Arizona
San Diego
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
o1.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+115
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.77 |
-130
|
u7.0 -118
|
-1.5 +180
|
LA Angels
Seattle
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.90 |
-360
|
o7.0 -135
|
-2.5 -115
|
|
2.47 |
+305
|
u7.5 -124
|
+2.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
San Francisco
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+152)
o0.5+152
CHC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 25 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 13.9% seasonal rate to 19.4% in the last 14 days.
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 98th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Roman Anthony will have the handedness advantage against Clay Holmes in today's game.. Roman Anthony hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 13.8% to 20.4%.. Despite posting a .221 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carlos Narvaez has had some very poor luck given the .058 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .279.. Carlos Narvaez's 90.1-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league this year: 76th percentile.. Carlos Narvaez has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial skill for batting average), checking in at the 92nd percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.
Total Bases
Carlos Narvaez o1.5 Total Bases (+390)
Projection 1.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Carlos Narvaez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 13.8% to 20.4%.. Despite posting a .221 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carlos Narvaez has had some very poor luck given the .058 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .279.. Carlos Narvaez's 90.1-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league this year: 76th percentile.. Carlos Narvaez has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial skill for batting average), checking in at the 92nd percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.
TB
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bryson Stott o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Bryson Stott is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers.. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+228)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers.. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.3-mph.
PIT
@
DET
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Riley Greene u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 2nd-deepest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Comerica Park.. This matchup is expected to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Riley Greene has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 80.8-mph in the past week's worth of games.. Riley Greene's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 21.1% to 16.6%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Riley Greene's true offensive talent to be a .344, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .022 gap between that mark and his actual .366 wOBA.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park projects as the #21 ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This matchup is expected to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Oneil Cruz in today's game.. Oneil Cruz's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 95.9-mph EV last season has dropped to 93.7-mph.
NYM
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Keibert Ruiz o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Jonathan Pintaro... and even better, Pintaro has a large platoon split.. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team in action today.. Keibert Ruiz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Keibert Ruiz's launch angle in recent games (25.3° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 16.8° seasonal angle.
Total Bases
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. Given Jonathan Pintaro's large platoon split, CJ Abrams will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team in action today.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Coby Mayo o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coby Mayo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Coby Mayo has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.5% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past 7 days.. In the past 14 days, Coby Mayo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph recently.
Total RBIs
Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Heliot Ramos will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Young in today's matchup.. Heliot Ramos has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
CIN
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Total RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #5 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. George Springer is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. George Springer will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo in today's matchup.. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. George Springer will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
ATL
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Ronald Acuna Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park profiles as the #24 ballpark in baseball for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Eury Perez will hold the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's game.. In today's game, Ronald Acuna Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (87th percentile).. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the worst ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Eury Perez will have the handedness advantage against Austin Riley today.. Typically, batters like Austin Riley who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Eury Perez.
CLE
@
KC
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-137)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
I’m backing Cleveland behind Gavin Williams, who enters with a 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts in 181 innings. Kansas City counters with Noah Cameron, but the bigger edge comes once the starters leave. The Royals’ bullpen has been a problem all season, while Cleveland owns a 3.75 team ERA. With the Guardians still fighting for the AL Central, I’ll trust the better pitching staff in a meaningful game.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium has the deepest right field fences among all major league parks.. Carter Jensen has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.. In the past 7 days, Carter Jensen's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%.. Checking in at the 22nd percentile, Carter Jensen sports a .229 batting average this year.
COL
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the #6 venue in the majors for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Burke today.. Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Mickey Moniak's launch angle this season (21.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.4° angle last year.
Total RBIs
Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Miguel Vargas projects as the 20th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #6 park in baseball for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Miguel Vargas pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage today.
STL
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Joey Ortiz u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 24th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.. The weather report predicts the most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Michael McGreevy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Ortiz in today's game.. Joey Ortiz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+253)
Projection 0.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. American Family Field has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Ivan Herrera will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Gasser has a large platoon split.
TEX
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 25 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Brooks Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 10th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Among all major league parks, Target Field's centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.. Brooks Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 90.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 84.4-mph in the past two weeks.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brooks Lee's true offensive skill to be a .292, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .025 gap between that mark and his actual .317 wOBA.. Using Statcast data, Brooks Lee is in the 6th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .267.
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+167)
Projection 1.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average.. This game is projected to have the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today (78%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today.. Jake Burger has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week.
HOU
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's rip the best expected ROI Over on the slate today after an easy cash last night with the Reds and Braves. The days are running out at Sutter Health Park, which has been a great Over diamond all year, with the Over hitting there at 64.3% — the highest home rate in all of baseball. Hunter Brown is pitching for a division contender, but he gets a huge Sacramento downgrade, while the A's are running Jacob Lopez, who just gave up 10 runs in his last outing and has allowed 19 runs over his last three starts. The wind is blowing out to center, and it's the best hitting weather on the slate. The fair price is -222 with 11.4 runs expected.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 2.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #1 park in MLB for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°.
AZ
@
SD
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (+116)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres. You can't have your back against the wall much more than the Diamondbacks do this weekend, as they basically need a sweep to have any hope of making the postseason. That should lead to their roster being managed like they're playing an elimination game, but I also really like the matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. The heart of the Padres' lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, and that's not a problem for Pfaadt, who has held right-handed hitters to a .599 OPS this season. His hard, sweeping slider runs away from the barrels of right-handed hitters, giving him a pitch that can neutralize the strength of San Diego's lineup. That's why the Diamondbacks have my attention at this price.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. In the league, Petco Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humidity on the slate today (80%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's game.
LAA
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as MLB's 5th-best home run hitter.. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.
LAD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Yunior Marte today.. The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Teoscar Hernandez's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 13.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Teoscar Hernandez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Teoscar Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 38.8% to 45.8%.. Grading out in the 96th percentile, Teoscar Hernandez has posted a .345 BABIP this year.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
Latest headlines Checkout latest headlinesRead more
-
Visit all available MLB odds View now MLB odds
-
MLB Scores + Matchups View now MLB Scores + Matchups
Latest headlines Checkout latest headlinesRead more
How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
