Baltimore @ Tampa Bay props

The #3 stadium in MLB for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Albert Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's game. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (0.2°) is significantly lower than his 4.9° angle last season. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 40.6% on the season to 58.3% over the last week.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Colton Cowser is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Colton Cowser has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Posting a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Colton Cowser has performed in the 89th percentile for offensive ability. Colton Cowser's 95.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 92nd percentile this year.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In the league, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Jackson Holliday has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 17.9% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last 7 days. In the last week's worth of games, Jackson Holliday's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 25.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Jose Siri will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jose Siri has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year's 94-mph figure.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. In the league, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. Dylan Carlson will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (24.3°) is considerably better than his 15° angle last year. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 9.4% on the season to 33.3% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Curtis Mead in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Curtis Mead has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Curtis Mead will hold that advantage today.

Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an advantage in today's matchup. Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last two weeks, Ben Rortvedt's 50% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.4%.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Anthony Santander's launch angle this season (23.6°) is a significant increase over his 20° angle last season. Anthony Santander's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 18.6% on the season to 27.3% over the last 14 days. Using Statcast metrics, Anthony Santander is in the 78th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .338.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 17th-best hitter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today. Gunnar Henderson has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.7% up to 21.4%. Over the last week, Gunnar Henderson's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Over the past two weeks, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.9-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph lately. In the past 14 days, Jose Caballero has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.5°. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 39.5% to 45.9%.

Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, James McCann will have an advantage today. James McCann has notched a .267 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Jeffrey Springs in this game. Adley Rutschman's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 48% on the season to 55.2% in the past two weeks. Adley Rutschman has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .325 mark is considerably lower than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will have an advantage in today's game. Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ranking in the 80th percentile, Ryan Mountcastle sits with a .273 batting average this year.

In the league, Tropicana Field's right field dimensions are the 4th-shallowest. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week, Taylor Walls's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.9-mph in recent games. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 35.8% on the season to 54.5% over the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez today. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team in action today. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Eloy Jimenez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Eloy Jimenez will have an edge today. Eloy Jimenez has put up a .268 batting average this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Austin Slater is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Austin Slater will have an advantage in today's game. Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Austin Slater's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 45.2% to 56.6%. The standard deviation of Austin Slater's launch angle since the start of last season (25.8°) is in the 92nd percentile. A low deviation like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

Tropicana Field has the 6th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Coby Mayo will have an advantage in today's matchup.