Pittsburgh @ San Diego Picks & Props

Petco Park ranks as the #26 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Manny Machado will have the handedness advantage against Marco Gonzales in today's matchup.

The #5 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 82.6-mph in the past 14 days. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has fallen off to 87.4-mph.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game. The #5 stadium in the league for suppressing BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, putting up a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .324 — a .017 discrepancy. Posting a 3.84 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Merrill has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Joe Musgrove.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Hitting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Michael A. Taylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Michael A. Taylor has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 13.4% seasonal rate to 20.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Michael A. Taylor's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 47.8% on the season to 60% in the last 7 days. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Michael A. Taylor has suffered from bad luck this year. His .254 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .293.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Last year, Bryan De La Cruz had an average launch angle of 12.3° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18°. Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky this year, notching a .290 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .026 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Donovan Solano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Donovan Solano will hold that advantage today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ha-seong Kim will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Ha-seong Kim has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .227 BA is a fair amount lower than his .249 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ha-seong Kim has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 96th percentile with a 1.35 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, putting up a .267 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .032 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Marco Gonzales will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Cronenworth today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91-mph average to last year's 86.5-mph figure.

Rowdy Tellez is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an advantage today. Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the past week, Rowdy Tellez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 18.2%.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Kyle Higashioka will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Kyle Higashioka has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 94.4-mph. Kyle Higashioka's launch angle of late (26.6° in the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 18.3° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 87.5-mph. Checking in at the 92nd percentile, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has posted a .293 batting average this year.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Joey Bart's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.7-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph lately. Joey Bart has been hot lately, notching a a 17.2% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

David Peralta's batting average skill is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Hitting from the same side that Marco Gonzales throws from, David Peralta will be in a tough position in today's game. David Peralta hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. David Peralta will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 4th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day. Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Andrew McCutchen has made notable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last year to 11.8% this season.