Pittsburgh @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #6 park in the game for suppressing base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Considering Luis Ortiz's huge platoon split, Manny Machado will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Oneil Cruz has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 101-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 95.1-mph EV.

Petco Park projects as the #25 field in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to less offense. Luis Arraez's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 86.2-mph seasonal average has dropped to 82.6-mph in the past two weeks. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.6-mph mark last season has dropped to 87.4-mph.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Joey Bart has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 97.7-mph. Over the last 14 days, Joey Bart's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 17.2%. Joey Bart has posted a .373 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

Michael A. Taylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Michael A. Taylor has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.4% seasonal rate to 20.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the past week's worth of games, Michael A. Taylor's 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.8%. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Michael A. Taylor has had some very poor luck this year. His .254 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .293.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ji Hwan Bae in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Ji Hwan Bae will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's game... and even more favorably, Ortiz has a huge platoon split. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Jackson Merrill has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.1% to 25.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Bryan De La Cruz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (18°) is significantly higher than his 12.3° mark last year. Despite posting a .290 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Bryan De La Cruz has had bad variance on his side given the .026 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Andrew McCutchen has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.8% rate last season to 11.8% this year. Over the last week, Andrew McCutchen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.8% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 87.5-mph. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has compiled a .293 batting average this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side against Michael King in today's game. Bryan Reynolds's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 44.1% on the season to 61.5% in the past 14 days.

Rowdy Tellez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Michael King throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Over the last week, Rowdy Tellez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 18.2%. Rowdy Tellez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, increasing from 45.7% on the season to 66.7% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ha-seong Kim will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .227 figure is deflated compared to his .249 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a 1.35 K/BB rate this year, Ha-seong Kim has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 96th percentile.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage today. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 40.2% to 45.5%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Jurickson Profar will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jurickson Profar has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 86.5-mph average. Compared to last season, Jurickson Profar has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 47.8% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Given Luis Ortiz's huge platoon split, Jake Cronenworth will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Ke'Bryan Hayes's batting average talent is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Despite posting a .267 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ke'Bryan Hayes has experienced some negative variance given the .032 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Luis Campusano will hold that advantage in today's game.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors. Kyle Higashioka will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Kyle Higashioka has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 94.4-mph. Kyle Higashioka's launch angle in recent games (26.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 18.3° seasonal figure. Compared to last season, Kyle Higashioka has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 17.5% to 25.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. David Peralta will have the handedness advantage against Luis Ortiz today... and moreover, Ortiz has a huge platoon split. David Peralta hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and David Peralta will hold that advantage today. David Peralta has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 87.5-mph mark.