Pittsburgh @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. The weather report projects the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Oneil Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95-mph to 97.6-mph in the past week. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.354) suggests that Oneil Cruz has had bad variance on his side this year with his .332 actual wOBA.

The #7 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense. Mitch Keller will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today's matchup. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been pulled from the game early 16% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher this year. The #7 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Isiah Kiner-Falefa in today's matchup.

The #7 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will bat from his worse side (0) today against Martin Perez Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. The weather report projects the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Andrew McCutchen will have the handedness advantage over Martin Perez in today's matchup. Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. David Peralta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's matchup. David Peralta hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and David Peralta will hold that advantage in today's matchup. David Peralta has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 87.8-mph EV.

Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Luis Campusano will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather report projects the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ha-seong Kim will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.5°, Ha-seong Kim has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 22.3° figure in the last two weeks. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.252) suggests that Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year with his .228 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jared Triolo will have the handedness advantage against Martin Perez in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.292) implies that Jared Triolo has experienced some negative variance this year with his .250 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive ability to be a .328, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .029 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .299 wOBA.

Joey Bart is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Joey Bart will have the handedness advantage against Martin Perez today. Joey Bart has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 96.7-mph. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Joey Bart has put up a .365 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Tyler Wade will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Tyler Wade will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.263) implies that Tyler Wade has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .242 actual batting average. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Tyler Wade and his 46.4% since the start of last season rank in the 83rd percentile by this measure.

Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Michael A. Taylor will have an edge in today's matchup. Michael A. Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Michael A. Taylor has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .250 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .284 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 42% to 47.1%. Jurickson Profar has compiled a .369 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Mitch Keller in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Connor Joe is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Connor Joe will have an advantage in today's matchup. Connor Joe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand today. Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Merrill will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Jackson Merrill has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10% seasonal rate to 21.2% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Ke'Bryan Hayes is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Ke'Bryan Hayes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke'Bryan Hayes's true offensive skill to be a .299, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .264 wOBA.

The #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense. The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today. Luis Arraez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 83.7-mph over the last two weeks. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.6-mph figure last season has lowered to 87.6-mph.

Among all major league parks, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. The switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Martin Perez. As it relates to his batting average, Yasmani Grandal has been unlucky this year. His .192 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Bryan De La Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's game. Last year, Bryan De La Cruz had an average launch angle of 12.3° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18°. In the last 7 days, Bryan De La Cruz's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.9%. Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky this year, posting a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .024 discrepancy.