Boston @ Baltimore props

Rob Refsnyder has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 15% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the deepest LF fences among all major league stadiums. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 4th-best among all the teams playing today. Rob Refsnyder will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. In the past 7 days, Rob Refsnyder's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.

Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today's game... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. Ryan Mountcastle has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games. In the past two weeks, Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 93.9 mph to 79.9 mph. Posting a 3.78 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has displayed weak plate discipline, ranking in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. This game is expected to have the 2nd-highest humidity on the schedule today (77%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today. Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez today. In today's game, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.3% rate (96th percentile). The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 4th-best among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jarren Duran in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Anthony Santander generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 20th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Colton Cowser will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

In today's game, Gunnar Henderson is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (79th percentile). Over the past week, Gunnar Henderson's 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%. Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year, compiling a .392 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .366 — a .026 gap.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Rafael Devers has notched a .394 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Cedric Mullins II will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (85%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will bat from his weak side (0) today against Albert Suarez Over the last 14 days, Nick Sogard's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 60.9% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in the league. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (85%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. David Hamilton's launch angle lately (25.9° in the past 14 days) is significantly higher than his 14.9° seasonal figure. David Hamilton ranks in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (50% rate this year).

Masataka Yoshida's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). This game is expected to have the 2nd-highest humidity on the schedule today (77%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand today. Masataka Yoshida hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Albert Suarez will have the handedness advantage against Danny Jansen today. In the last week, Danny Jansen's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 103.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Tyler O'Neill will have the handedness advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Triston Casas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Since the start of last season, Triston Casas's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 92nd percentile at 95.3 mph.

The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and James McCann will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Albert Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connor Wong in today's matchup. Ranking in the 97th percentile, Connor Wong has put up a .361 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The #7 field in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in the league. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Eloy Jimenez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. This game is expected to have the 2nd-highest humidity on the schedule today (77%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Eloy Jimenez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Eloy Jimenez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Albert Suarez will hold the platoon advantage over Ceddanne Rafaela in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The #7 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game is expected to have the highest humidity on the schedule today (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid. Albert Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Romy Gonzalez in today's matchup. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences today.