Miami @ New York props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Derek Hill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Derek Hill has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 93.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citi Field as the 2nd-worst venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average. Citi Field's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side (0) today against Luis Severino Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xavier Edwards today. Xavier Edwards has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 84.1-mph in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jake Burger is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jake Burger has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 14 days. Jake Burger has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph mark.

The shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.6-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters. The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst among every team today. Emmanuel Rivera has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 89.7-mph. Emmanuel Rivera has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .211 BA is deflated compared to his .251 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jesse Winker ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesse Winker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Meyer in today's matchup. Jesse Winker has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jesse Winker will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. By putting up a .340 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jesse Winker grades out in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Pete Alonso pulls many of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Pete Alonso's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 107.3-mph lately.

Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jeff McNeil's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage against Max Meyer in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jeff McNeil will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jeff McNeil's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 12.7% to 15.8%.

Jonah Bride is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. Jonah Bride pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jonah Bride has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.2% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the last week. Jonah Bride's launch angle lately (30° over the last 7 days) is significantly higher than his 12° seasonal figure. Jonah Bride has shown strong plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 83rd percentile with a 1.97 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Mark Vientos is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today. Mark Vientos will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Mark Vientos has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.7% rate last year to 16.2% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Otto Lopez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 92-mph. In the past week's worth of games, Otto Lopez's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 37.8%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Otto Lopez's true offensive ability to be a .299, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .049 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. J.D. Martinez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and J.D. Martinez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. J.D. Martinez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.

The switch-hitting Vidal Brujan will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Luis Severino. Vidal Brujan has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Luis Severino in today's matchup. Jesus Sanchez is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Nimmo will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. With a .337 BABIP this year, Francisco Alvarez finds himself in the 87th percentile.

Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Severino in today's game. Kyle Stowers is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Kyle Stowers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.299) suggests that Kyle Stowers has been unlucky this year with his .225 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Francisco Lindor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Francisco Lindor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 93-mph over the last two weeks.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Citi Field. Nick Fortes has been unlucky this year, posting a .235 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .269 — a .034 deviation.