Boston @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season. Kutter Crawford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ryan Mountcastle's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 93.9 mph to 79.9 mph. Sporting a 3.85 K/BB rate this year, Ryan Mountcastle has demonstrated weak plate discipline, grading out in the 20th percentile.

19% of the time that Ryan O'Hearn has started against a northpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Kutter Crawford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eloy Jimenez in today's matchup. Eloy Jimenez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days. Eloy Jimenez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (1.8°) is a considerable dropoff from his 6° figure last year. Eloy Jimenez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, decreasing from 9.2% on the season to 0% in the past two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Eloy Jimenez has experienced some positive variance this year. His .263 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .231.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game. Albert Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela today. Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 92.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 85.3-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. In notching a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Ceddanne Rafaela has performed in the 21st percentile for hitting ability.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

Gunnar Henderson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Gunnar Henderson's 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.3%. Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year, putting up a .395 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .366 — a .029 deviation.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's deepest LF fences in today's game. Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 14.3% on the season to 10.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Despite posting a .361 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has been very fortunate given the .027 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game.

Connor Wong's BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #8 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles. Connor Wong has notched a .358 BABIP this year, checking in at the 96th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Triston Casas ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today's game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have an advantage in today's game. Cedric Mullins II pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game.

Jackson Holliday's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Jackson Holliday will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The #8 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 20th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability. Colton Cowser is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Colton Cowser will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #7 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #8 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°.

The #8 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 84°. Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Ramon Urias are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.