Chicago @ Houston Picks & Props

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 90.3-mph. Gavin Sheets's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (22.3° in the past 14 days) is a significant increase over his 9.3° seasonal angle. Gavin Sheets's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 36.5% to 44.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Andrew Benintendi's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (17.5°) is significantly better than his 13.4° mark last season. Andrew Benintendi's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 41.4% on the season to 80% in the past week's worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Andrew Benintendi's true offensive talent to be a .319, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .043 difference between that figure and his actual .276 wOBA.

Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks. Dominic Fletcher has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .249 figure is a good deal lower than his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ranking in the 85th percentile, Dominic Fletcher has put up a .331 BABIP since the start of last season.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Riley Baldwin will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Framber Valdez in this game. Riley Baldwin pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Riley Baldwin has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last week. In the past 7 days, Riley Baldwin's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph lately. Riley Baldwin's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (26.8° over the last week) is a significant increase over his 20.9° seasonal angle.

The #11 venue in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Jeremy Pena has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 85.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Jeremy Pena's launch angle recently (4.4° over the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 7.9° seasonal angle.

The #11 venue in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 92.9-mph figure last season has lowered to 90.5-mph. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.276) suggests that Jose Altuve has experienced some positive variance this year with his .299 actual batting average.

The #11 venue in MLB for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 21.6% to 11.3%.

The #11 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Ky Bush throws from, Yordan Alvarez meets a tough challenge in today's game. Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Hitting from the opposite that Ky Bush throws from, Zachary Dezenzo will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Zachary Dezenzo will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Zachary Dezenzo's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Luis Robert will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez today. Luis Robert pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Luis Robert has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Miguel Vargas will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Miguel Vargas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.217) may lead us to conclude that Miguel Vargas has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .193 actual batting average. Miguel Vargas has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile with a 1.72 K/BB rate.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. There has been a significant improvement in Nicky Lopez's launch angle from last year's 0.2° to 6.3° this season. When it comes to plate discipline, Nicky Lopez's ability is quite strong, putting up a 1.93 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 80th percentile.

Jake Meyers's BABIP ability is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Meyers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ky Bush in today's matchup. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Lenyn Sosa will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Lenyn Sosa has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 93.4-mph in the past week. Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .243 rate is deflated compared to his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Andrew Vaughn will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.1°, Andrew Vaughn has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.1° mark in the past two weeks. Andrew Vaughn's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 13.9% to 18.6%.

Korey Lee is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Korey Lee will have an edge in today's game. Over the past week, Korey Lee's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.3% up to 37.5%. Korey Lee has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 93.7-mph in the past two weeks.

Chas McCormick's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chas McCormick will have the handedness advantage over Ky Bush in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage today. When it comes to his batting average, Chas McCormick has been unlucky this year. His .195 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .219.

The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Pedro Leon will hold the platoon advantage over Ky Bush today. Pedro Leon will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Nick Senzel will have an edge today. Nick Senzel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 11.4% to 21.5%. Nick Senzel has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .197 figure is considerably lower than his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Corey Julks will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez today. Last year, Corey Julks had an average launch angle of 8.6° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Ky Bush throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage today. In the past week's worth of games, Mauricio Dubon's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.2-mph over the course of the season to 90.8-mph of late.

Shay Whitcomb is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Shay Whitcomb will have the handedness advantage against Ky Bush today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Shay Whitcomb will hold that advantage in today's matchup.