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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+128 
|
o6.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.15 |
-135 
|
u6.5 -105 
|
-1.5 +167 
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+128
|
o6.5 -118 
|
+1.5 -177
|
|
3.89 |
-140
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+218)
o0.5+218
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+230
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 +100 
|
|
4.62 |
-250
|
u7.5 -125 
|
-1.5 -110
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.11 |
-115
|
o8.5 -108
|
-1.5 +146 
|
|
5.08 |
+108
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.96 |
+160
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
3.72 |
-180
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +130
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
o0.5+245
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
-108
|
o7.5 -114
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.96 |
-107
|
u8.0 -112
|
+1.5 -183
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.31 |
-155
|
o10.5 -139
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.12 |
+137
|
u11.5 -117
|
+1.5 -110
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.51 |
-129
|
o9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.74 |
+114
|
u9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
o1.5-120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.65 |
+188
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
5.46 |
-215
|
u8.5 -121
|
-1.5 +100
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.00 |
+110
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.55 |
-118
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +162
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.74 |
+136
|
o6.5 -130
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.38 |
-154
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +152
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.87 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.33 |
+168
|
o7.5 -109
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
|
4.19 |
-190
|
u7.5 -109
|
-1.5 +120
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.72 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.34 |
-170
|
o10.0 -114
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
|
4.83 |
+152
|
u10.5 -122
|
+1.5 -105
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.66 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.61 |
+130
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.40 |
-144
|
u6.5 +102
|
-1.5 +168
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.40 |
+180
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -122
|
|
|
5.41 |
-210
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +110
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.
He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 58%.
Sonny Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Cleveland Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Foster Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Spread
ATL -1.5 (-109)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties. The Reds rank 28th in OPS vs LHP over the last two weeks, while Atlanta is 10-3 in Sale’s home starts and should be eager to bounce back after losing yesterday. Andrew Abbott has been obliterated for 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. Cincinnati's bullpen offers little relief, ranking dead last in ERA (6.04) over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Total Bases (+235)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Eugenio Suarez as the game's 17th-best home run hitter.. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 34th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+117)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Salvador Perez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .278 wOBA.. Salvador Perez has performed at a clip of 36.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-119)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Pete Crow-Armstrong has a great opportunity to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at a very appealing price. The future NL MVP has gone over this prop 56.25% of the time when owning an elite Batters-Box rating this season, while recording a double 27% of the time and a home run 31.2% of the time. He draws Marlins right-hander Ryan Gusto, who has struggled against left-handed hitters recently. Over his last three games, lefties have posted a near-52% hard-hit rate and 22% barrel rate against Gusto. Crow-Armstrong has also posted a .667 SLG and .378 ISO over his last 10 games.
Total Hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong u0.5 Total Hits (+202)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for pitchers.. Today, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.8% rate (99th percentile).. Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck given the .050 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x. The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances. The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles. It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This matchup is expected to have the 32nd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Here is another 5.1x home run that should have a fair value of 3.5x at Coors Field against the worst HR/9 pitcher on the slate. Carroll has been demoted to the fifth spot in the lineup due to a September slump, but he still has three dingers and an .826 OPS over his last 10 games. If that's a slump, I'm buying the dip. The wind is blowing out to his pull side, and a matchup against Mason Adams is a great thing at this price. Adams has allowed a homer in each of his five starts and has given up six homers in 23 innings, with a 3.0 HR/9 and 9.00 ERA at Coors. I would love three plate appearances against Mason, who lefties are hitting .341 against.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This contest is expected to have the 33rd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Henry Bolte o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Henry Bolte is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Henry Bolte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
Total Bases
Zach Neto o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Zach Neto is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Moneyline
LAD (-214)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
It is very tough to see it being a Yoshinobu Yamamoto Day and want to back the San Diego Padres in this spot. The Padres are sending out left-hander Robbie Ray, who owns an 8.78 ERA, 5.43 xERA and 1.65 WHIP over his last three starts. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats are gearing up for October, posting a 170 wRC+, .411 wOBA and .943 OPS over their last six games. With Yamamoto always being lights-out when he takes the mound, I’m having a tough time fading the Monstars of L.A. and will back the Dodgers to roll.
Total
o8.5 (+107)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Fully expecting the Dodgers’ offense to carry the run production in this matchup. Robbie Ray has struggled in his last few starts, and now he gets a Dodgers lineup that is heating up as October approaches. That’s a tough spot for the veteran lefty. The Padres have been swinging a hot bat, posting a 174 wRC+, .967 OPS and .259 ISO over their last six games. However, when it’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto day, I’m not putting much stock into San Diego’s recent offensive success. I’ll gladly take whatever the Padres can give us, but I expect Los Angeles to carry the load.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+350)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Alvarez sports a third-ranked .311 ISO against right-handed pitchers among qualified hitters and has already homered off Seattle starter George Kirby earlier this season. Additionally, Kirby has allowed a massive 43.2% squared-up contact rate and 18.6% blast-contact rate to left-handed hitters during an active seven-start slump.
Total
o7.5 (-109)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to -115 because Seattle starter George Kirby sports a confidence-shattering 5.32 xERA and 4.37 xFIP over his past seven starts, and Seattle faces an overworked Houston bullpen. The Astros have relied on relievers for 18 1/3 innings across the past four games, and they sport a concerning 4.41 xERA and 5.05 xFIP during the busy stretch.
LAA
@
SEA
Thu, Sep 24 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
SEA (-204)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo has dominated Angels hitters in the past, limiting them to a .190 batting average and .442 OPS. Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez's struggles have continued, as he owns a 5.58 xERA and a hard-hit rate that ranks in the fourth percentile, according to Baseball Savant. Seattle is playable on the ML to -220.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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