Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

The #10 field in baseball for suppressing BABIP to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. Tanner Houck will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's game. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Yainer Diaz tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the league. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have the upper hand today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Rafael Devers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Rafael Devers's 25.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.1%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an edge in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Danny Jansen will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (23.1°) is quite a bit higher than his 19.5° figure last year. Danny Jansen has shown strong plate discipline this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile with a 1.56 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 41.3% on the season to 57.1% over the last two weeks. Ceddanne Rafaela has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 17.1° figure is among the highest in the game this year (87th percentile).

The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Shay Whitcomb will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an edge today.

The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Connor Wong will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today. Posting a .355 BABIP this year, Connor Wong has performed in the 96th percentile.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today. Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Victor Caratini's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 13th-best batter in baseball when assessing his BABIP ability. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. In notching a .335 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Triston Casas grades out in the 76th percentile for offensive skills. Ranking in the 93rd percentile, Triston Casas sits with a .363 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 86.6-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Romy Gonzalez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 96.4-mph over the past 14 days.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Jon Singleton will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 12th-worst out of all the teams today. Jon Singleton will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Placing in the 93rd percentile, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

David Hamilton has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Masataka Yoshida has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Chas McCormick has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Pedro Leon has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 7 games.