Milwaukee @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Brice Turang has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Brice Turang will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Brice Turang's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (3.2°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.2° angle last year.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers. Today, Alec Burleson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.1% rate (78th percentile). Among all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers. In the past week, Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 93.1 mph to 89.6 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 16th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP skill. Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Garrett Mitchell will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Garrett Mitchell hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Over the past two weeks, Garrett Mitchell's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 104-mph lately.

Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge today. Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (24.5°) is considerably higher than his 21.5° mark last year. Over the last two weeks, Nolan Gorman's 61.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Last season, Willson Contreras had an average launch angle of 8.1° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 12°. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 15% on the season to 32.3% over the last two weeks.

Victor Scott will have the handedness advantage against Frankie Montas today. Victor Scott hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Victor Scott will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Victor Scott has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 4.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past week. Victor Scott's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, going from 37.7% on the season to 58.3% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. William Contreras has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the last 14 days. William Contreras has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last season's 94.7-mph figure.

Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Tyler Black will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Tyler Black hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage today. Last year, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.2°. Paul Goldschmidt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 14.5% on the season to 23.3% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Paul Goldschmidt has been unlucky this year, notching a .296 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .038 difference.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 3.4% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past week. Nolan Arenado has displayed strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 79th percentile with a 2 K/BB rate. Sporting a .265 batting average this year, Nolan Arenado has performed in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Batting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge today. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage today. Lars Nootbaar's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.9-mph now compared to just 89.1-mph then.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.7°, Brendan Donovan has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.5° mark in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Chourio has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.8% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the last 14 days. Jackson Chourio has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game. Masyn Winn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph to 90.5-mph over the last two weeks. Masyn Winn has compiled a .271 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Placing in the 80th percentile, Masyn Winn sits with a .271 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Sal Frelick will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's game. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. When it comes to plate discipline, Sal Frelick's ability is quite strong, putting up a 1.82 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Willy Adames is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Willy Adames has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.7% seasonal rate to 22.6% in the last 14 days. Willy Adames's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (29.3° in the past two weeks) is considerably higher than his 21.3° seasonal figure. Ranking in the 79th percentile, Willy Adames has posted a .338 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Rhys Hoskins has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.