Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

The #10 stadium in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran today. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 93.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 91.1-mph in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will be challenged by baseball's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. From last year to this one, Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 21.6% to 11.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Alex Bregman will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game. Alex Bregman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jeremy Pena will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game. Jeremy Pena has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 89.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.9-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal figure of 7.4°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.5°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Cooper Criswell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.9-mph EV last year has dropped to 90.5-mph. Over the last 7 days, Jose Altuve's 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Connor Wong has posted a .353 BABIP this year, grading out in the 96th percentile.

The #10 stadium in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which often leads to worse offense. Yordan Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Yordan Alvarez has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 14% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days. Yordan Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 93.7-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83.2-mph in the last week.

Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today. Victor Caratini's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (8.4°) is significantly higher than his 4.7° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's game.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in MLB. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Masataka Yoshida tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Barrel% of Rob Refsnyder has significantly improved, with an increase from 3.9% last year to 10.2% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 93.9-mph over the past week. Over the past two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela's 51.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Triston Casas is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage in today's matchup. Posting a .334 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Triston Casas is positioned in the 75th percentile for hitting ability.

In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Shay Whitcomb will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Shay Whitcomb has been hot of late, posting a a 20% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) in the past week's worth of games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's matchup. Rafael Devers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage today. Mauricio Dubon has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph to 93.6-mph over the last week.

Long-balls are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in MLB. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. David Hamilton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander today. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, David Hamilton has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22.2° angle over the last two weeks. David Hamilton has notched a .323 BABIP this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Trey Cabbage will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Trey Cabbage is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Trey Cabbage will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. This matchup is predicted to have the 11th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Justin Verlander in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 91.4-mph average.