MLB Picks

Sanchez profiles extremely well against Gray, owning a .423 batting average, a .721 SLG, and a 10.0% barrel rate against his primary pitch mix since his breakout started back on May 11. 

With the Brewers boasting a middling offense against southpaws, the shorthanded Guardians will ride Parker Messick to a victory.

Let's call it what it is: this is a bet on Joe Ryan, one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. He's also looking to make a strong impression over the next couple of weeks, as several teams are expected to target him ahead of the trade deadline. Ryan features a four-seam fastball that he relies on heavily. While the pitch won't blow hitters away with velocity—it sits around 94 mph—it's his release point and the flat, rising trajectory that make it so difficult for batters to track and square up. This pitch profiles very well against the middle of the Rangers' lineup, particularly their right-handed bats in Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Jake Burger. If those hitters struggle to find success, where is the offense coming from for Texas? I make the Twins closer to a -135 favorite in this spot.

While it hasn’t been pretty for Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, his underlying 3.49 xFIP at home is impressive, and Philly ranks 11th in wOBA and sixth in ISO at Citizens Bank Park. So, with the Mets sporting respective 29th- and 26th-ranked marks on the highway, I’m expecting Nola to pitch well enough for the Phillies to pull away. New York lefty Sean Manaea will be making just his second start of the season, and the Philadelphia bullpen paces the majors in xFIP this season and across the past 30 days to close out the game behind Nola.

Sean Burke over his last five starts, his walk rate sits near 15%, with even worse trends versus left-handed hitters at 18.3% over his last 60 faced. On the road and versus righties, the control issues still linger above double digits. He now draws a disciplined Yankees lineup that consistently works counts and draws free passes, with multiple hitters showing strong walk rates across recent sample sizes. With a 2.5 line and plus money better than +130 is clear value down to +120.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

Cardinals vs. Royals sets up well for both starters to stay under their strikeout lines given the contact driven profiles on each side. Royals lefty Noah Cameron carries the lowest K rate in the current season Batters-Box dataset. His home metrics show moderate swing and whiff rates but nothing dominant. The Cardinals have been extremely difficult to strike out against lefties on the road, posting elite contact rates and multiple hitters with very low strikeout marks across recent samples. Expect consistent contact and limited punchouts.

I'll happily add a +500 homer in Sacramento today with, by far, the best hitting conditions on the slate. Tyler Soderstrom is slugging .719 during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, where he has also launched four home runs. His .395 ISO ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball over the last two weeks, and his 75.4-mph bat speed places him among the upper tier of hitters over that same stretch. The Halos are rolling with a bullpen day, and that group of relievers ranks in the bottom third of the league in HR/9. Four of the seven most-used Angels relievers also carry ERAs north of 4.00. I love runs in this game.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.