MLB Picks

The Royals have been losing big all season. K.C.'s runline and moneyline records are the same, meaning that giving up the 1.5 runs against them isn't a big risk. While starter Seth Lugo started the year strong, May was rough, posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP in five starts. 

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Michael King in today's matchup.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. CJ Abrams will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Trevor Larnach will have an edge in today's matchup.. Trevor Larnach's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 46.1% on the season to 66.7% in the last week's worth of games.. Trevor Larnach has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 86th percentile with a 1.41 K/BB rate.

Peter Lambert has been far less effective at home, with a 4.32 ERA driven by rough outings in his last two home starts. Milwaukee righties have the third-lowest pull rate vs. RHP during May. That will negate the effectiveness of his sinker/slider combo, which Lambert utilizes 44% of the time in same-sided matchups.

 

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #5 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle lately (24° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 16.5° seasonal figure.. Compared to last season, Wilyer Abreu has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.7% to 20.7% this season.

Ryan Vilade hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences today.. Ryan Vilade has been lucky this year, posting a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .288 — a .077 disparity.. Utilizing Statcast data, Ryan Vilade grades out in the 16th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .187.. Ryan Vilade and his -5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 2nd percentile, among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.

The New York Mets have the pitching advantage with Christian Scott taking the bump. He owns a 2.8 FIP and 3.0 ERA over the past month despite a .328 batting average on balls put in play, which should drop moving forward.

Tyler Phillips’ xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA, suggesting regression could be coming.

Olson draws a favorable matchup against Brady Singer, who has surrendered six homers across his last two starts and struggles badly against left-handed hitters. The Braves first baseman has 15 long balls this season, including six in May, and owns two career homers against Singer.

A converted reliever, Brown started his last four, never allowing more than three runs. All Brown's stuff ranks in the top third of MLB, including a 99th-percentile breaking ball. He'll face St. Louis, which scored two runs in three games before Friday. The Cardinals start Kyle Leahy, who ranks in the bottom third in every pitch and is worse than 92% of MLB pitchers in overall run value.

Bryce Eldridge is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.. This year, Bryce Eldridge has been pinch hit for in 10% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.. Bryce Eldridge will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. In notching a .139 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Bryce Eldridge finds himself in the 3rd percentile.

While I expect the Yankees to score enough to cover the run-line, Ginn will still be decent. He does a great job limiting hard contact with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the top 14% of baseball, which is essential against the Yankees. On the other side, we've already spoken about how Weathers whiff-inducing stuff should carry him. I'd play this to -122.

Roki Sasaki allows loud contact (11th percentile barrel rate, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), which is a concern against a Philadelphia lineup with the fifth-highest hard-hit rate (35.6%) in the last 20 days. His four-seamer has been crushed (.348 xBA, .614 xSLG), and Philadelphia (fourth-most WAR against fastballs) will be happy to oblige.

 

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for HRs.. Among every team on the slate today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.. Over the last week, Geraldo Perdomo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4% up to 11.1%.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.