Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Given Julian Aguiar's large platoon split, Billy McKinney will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Billy McKinney will hold that advantage today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Billy McKinney has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .312 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

Oneil Cruz's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Oneil Cruz will have the handedness advantage against Julian Aguiar today... and moreover, Aguiar has a large platoon split. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Bryan De La Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Last year, Bryan De La Cruz had an average launch angle of 12.3° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17.2°.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Noelvi Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last 7 days. Over the past week, Noelvi Marte's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.3%. Despite posting a .241 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Noelvi Marte has been unlucky given the .050 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .291.

Ji Hwan Bae's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Ji Hwan Bae will hold the platoon advantage against Julian Aguiar in today's game... and even more favorably, Aguiar has a large platoon split. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Ji Hwan Bae will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Spencer Steer ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. In terms of plate discipline, Spencer Steer's talent is quite good, posting a 1.95 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 79th percentile.

Joey Bart has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Joey Bart will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last 7 days, Joey Bart's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 17.6%.

Dingers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in Major League Baseball. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 33%. Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Elly De La Cruz today. Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year, compiling a .354 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .021 gap.

Dingers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in Major League Baseball. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 33%. Julian Aguiar will have the handedness advantage against Isiah Kiner-Falefa today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Aguiar's large platoon split. Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88.8-mph average last year has dropped off to 85.5-mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.286) may lead us to conclude that Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been very fortunate this year with his .314 actual wOBA.

Dingers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest in Major League Baseball. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 33%. Over the last 14 days, Bryan Reynolds's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 3.1%. Bryan Reynolds's launch angle of late (-1.8° in the last week's worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 8.8° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Tyler Stephenson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 92.7-mph over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Jared Triolo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jared Triolo has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 4.8% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Ty France has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 93.6-mph. Ty France's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 43.4% on the season to 60% over the last week.

T.J. Friedl is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. T.J. Friedl will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Woodford in today's game... and the cherry on top, Woodford has a large platoon split. T.J. Friedl has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 88.8-mph average to last year's 86.7-mph figure. T.J. Friedl's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (10.7°) is quite a bit better than his 5.8° angle last year.

Santiago Espinal's batting average talent is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Santiago Espinal's 68.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Given Julian Aguiar's large platoon split, Rowdy Tellez will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. In the past 14 days, Jonathan India's 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%. Jonathan India has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .248 mark is deflated compared to his .268 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Dominic Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jake Woodford in today's game... and even more favorably, Woodford has a large platoon split. Dominic Smith has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season's 91.5-mph figure. Dominic Smith and his 18.1° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 92nd percentile, among the highest in the league this year.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation tends to lead to more offense. Will Benson will have the handedness advantage against Jake Woodford in today's game... and the cherry on top, Woodford has a large platoon split. Will Benson's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (18.7°) is quite a bit better than his 14.5° figure last year. Will Benson's 11.9% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.