Arizona @ Boston props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which often leads to less offense. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a huge disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.4°. When it comes to his batting average, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has experienced some positive variance this year. His .276 BA has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .259.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which often leads to less offense. Jarren Duran's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 90.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 88.3-mph over the last week. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 47% on the season to 35.5% in the past 14 days. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, compiling a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .030 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Triston Casas is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly in today's game. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Grading out in the 96th percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .348 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Because of Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Corbin Carroll will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Corbin Carroll has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today's game.

The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split. Adrian Del Castillo has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Adrian Del Castillo has been hot in recent games, putting up a an 18.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's game. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage today. David Hamilton has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.6% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the last week's worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Josh Bell ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Bell is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Josh Bell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jake McCarthy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and even better, Houck has a large platoon split. Jake McCarthy has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today's matchup. Rafael Devers has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Geraldo Perdomo has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year's 87.1-mph average. With a 2 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Fenway Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Tyler O'Neill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Rob Refsnyder will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP ability is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Ceddanne Rafaela will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph to 91-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Joc Pederson will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Considering Tanner Houck's large platoon split, Luis Guillorme will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Luis Guillorme has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Luis Guillorme has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 2.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week.

Pavin Smith is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The #5 park in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Pavin Smith will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Houck has a large platoon split. Pavin Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck. Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.