Tampa Bay @ Seattle Picks & Props

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Dylan Carlson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph to 95.1-mph in the past week. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (22.6°) is significantly better than his 15° mark last year. Dylan Carlson has been unlucky this year, compiling a .271 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .037 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Siri has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 15.9% seasonal rate to 27.3% over the last two weeks. This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.8 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark. Over the past week, Jose Siri's 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.4%.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jorge Polanco will hold that advantage in today's game. Jorge Polanco's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 18.2% on the season to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Luke Raley ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Luke Raley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 98.6-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Over the past 14 days, Junior Caminero's maximum exit velocity (a strong indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 116.3-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in Major League Baseball.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Josh Rojas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot today. Josh Rojas will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Last year, Josh Rojas had an average launch angle of 10.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.4°.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Randy Arozarena will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Randy Arozarena's launch angle in recent games (21.6° over the past 14 days) is considerably higher than his 13.9° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 14th-best hitter in MLB when assessing his batting average ability. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (4.7° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 0.5° seasonal angle. Over the past week, Yandy Diaz's maximum exit velocity (a strong measure of recent form and raw power) has been 113.6-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leonardo Rivas in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Leonardo Rivas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Leonardo Rivas will hold that advantage today. Over the last 7 days, Leonardo Rivas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.8% up to 11.1%. Leonardo Rivas has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 93.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 2nd-best hitter in the league when it comes to his BABIP skill. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Julio Rodriguez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last week, Julio Rodriguez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.3% down to 0%.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Mitch Haniger will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mitch Haniger's true offensive skill to be a .312, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .031 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .281 wOBA.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last season's 87.7-mph EV. Jose Caballero has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 90.1-mph. Jose Caballero's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (26.3° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 17.9° seasonal figure.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Taylor Walls's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (27.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly higher than his 17.1° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive skill to be a .283, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .040 deviation between that figure and his actual .243 wOBA. As it relates to plate discipline, Taylor Walls's talent is quite impressive, sporting a 1.7 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 89th percentile.

Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game. Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Checking in at the 88th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Ben Rortvedt demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a key ability for achieving a high batting average. Ranking in the 89th percentile, Ben Rortvedt sits with a .345 BABIP this year.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cal Raleigh will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Cal Raleigh has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last season's 89.6-mph mark. Cal Raleigh's launch angle in recent games (30.1° in the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 20.8° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.8-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure. In the past two weeks, Christopher Morel has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 24.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.5°.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Dominic Canzone will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.229) provides evidence that Dominic Canzone has had bad variance on his side this year with his .199 actual batting average. Dominic Canzone's 11.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 80th percentile this year.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the league. Justin Turner will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Justin Turner's 72.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46%. As it relates to plate discipline, Justin Turner's talent is quite strong, posting a 1.64 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 90th percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.