MLB Picks

Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs in every full season of his career, including going for 38 bombs with an .871 OPS, his highest OPS since his rookie season. Joe Ryan gave up seven homers in his last four starts of 2025, and I like Alonso to get off to a fast start in his new home.

Trevor Rogers takes the mound after a great 2025 campaign, while the Orioles are looking to rebound from a disappointing year with a lineup that should be far more productive this season. I'm taking Baltimore to get an Opening Day win at home.

Christian Walker tied for Houston’s spring homer lead and went deep against Soriano in 2024. He's 3-for-9 with a 1.000 OPS in limited matchups with the Angels starter. The most likely candidate to surrender a homer in this game isn’t a starter, though — it’s the Angels’ bullpen. L.A. relievers gave up as many leads as they preserved last year. Their new additions — Drew Pomeranz, Brent Suter and Jordan Romano — were homer prone, particularly vs. right-handed batters. 

Hunter Brown allowed no earned runs in more than 25% of last year’s starts, and allowed just four ER in four Spring Training outings. Carlos Correa plays his first opener for Houston since 2021. His OPS+ jumped from 94 to 117 after returning at last year’s deadline.

I’ll double down on Greene for the HR prop, too. He crushed 36 dingers last season, with 32 of those coming off righties. That’ll put Pivetta under pressure here, and the Detroit slugger hit more homers on the road than at home in 2025. Petco Park isn’t the easiest place to nail the long ball, but Greene’s power overrides that.

After the Tigers’ late-season collapse last year, it’s easy to forget their scorching 29-15 start. I see Detroit flying out of the traps again here – and Skubal, coming off a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 2025, should love the pitcher-friendly conditions at Petco Park.

Both starters struggled in Spring Training, with Garrett Crochet posting a 7.36 ERA and Andrew Abbott pitching to a 11.72 ERA. Normally I don't much put much stock in how veterans throw in the preseason but Abbott also fell off toward the end of last year, logging a 4.21 ERA with a .264 OBA in his final 10 starts. I have more faith in Crochet who was the AL Cy Young runner up last year after being named an All Star the previous season. I also rate Boston's lineup slightly better despite losing Alex Bregman. Top-to-bottom the Red Sox have fewer holes than the Reds who have unproven hitters outside of Eugenio Suarez and Elly De La Cruz. 

Roman Anthony is viewed as a future star and seemed on the verge of a breakout last year before an oblique injury ended his season. Anthony's hard-hit rates and exit velocities suggest he can be an elite power hitter.  He also boasts strong reverse platoon splits. which will help him against Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott today. Anthony impressed at the World Baseball Classic and getting his home run prop at +390 at a hitter friendly park could look like a steal in a few months.

Garcia spent the offseason working with the Philadelphia coaching staff, and he hit a pair of homers with a solid .388 wOBA and .858 OPS during spring training. Even with his production dropping the past two years, Garcia hit a respectable 44 homers after launching 97 from 2021-2023.

Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez is third in ERA and fourth in xFIP among qualified starters over the past two seasons, and the Rangers enter ranked 24th in wOBA and 20th in ISO against lefties during the same stretch. I’m anticipating Sanchez picking up where he left off and holding the Rangers in check today, while the Philly offense does enough damage to pick up a convincing win.

Junior Caminero is coming off a breakout campaign where he swatted a massive 45 home runs with 110 RBIs. He opens 2026 with a great matchup against Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals' lefty gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity.

Diaz has belted 61 home runs across the last three seasons. He’s also clubbed 41 career bombs off left-handers and 59 jacks against righties during his nine-year career.

Zac Gallen gets the ball, and Freeman is 7-for-27 lifetime against him with a pair of long balls. Sixteen of Freddie Freeman's homers in 2025 were off right-handers, and Gallen gave up 31 bombs last year —12 of them to left-handed batters. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominated this D-backs lineup last season. Current Arizona players have combined for a 32.1% K-rate against Yamamoto, with strikeout totals of 4, 9, 10, and 7 in four games.

If anyone is going to homer in this game, it will be Cal Raleigh, MLB’s reigning home-run leader, playing in his home opener. Bibee’s struggles with the long ball make this an even better bet

Cleveland's offense struggled throughout 2025 and will draw a tough matchup in Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert tonight. Combine that with Tanner Bibee's uneven results while facing a strong Seattle lineup, and the home team wins by multiple runs.