Toronto @ Boston Picks & Props

Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 6th-best for pitching of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.8-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces. Kutter Crawford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alejandro Kirk in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for pitching of all games today. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .374 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .035 gap.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for pitching of all games today. Batting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, George Springer meets a tough challenge today. George Springer will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. George Springer's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 14.1% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-best for pitching of all games today. Hitting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 95.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 86-mph over the last week.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks. Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Bowden Francis today. Extreme flyball bats like Masataka Yoshida usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bowden Francis.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an advantage in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 field in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Mickey Gasper has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks. Mickey Gasper will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best batter in MLB. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Batting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage today. Rafael Devers has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Spencer Horwitz will have the handedness advantage against Kutter Crawford today. Spencer Horwitz may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Triston Casas is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Bowden Francis throws from, Triston Casas will have an advantage today. Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Joey Loperfido will have an edge today. Joey Loperfido has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Joey Loperfido hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Fenway Park grades out as the #6 field in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ernie Clement pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 19.7% on the season to 23.5% over the past 14 days.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field fences among all parks. Addison Barger will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. Addison Barger has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park grades out as the #6 field in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 86.8-mph average.

David Hamilton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. In MLB, Fenway Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bowden Francis in today's matchup. David Hamilton will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. David Hamilton has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 5.4% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last week's worth of games.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 field in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage today. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (22.6°) is quite a bit higher than his 19.5° angle last year. Despite posting a .295 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Danny Jansen has had some very poor luck given the .022 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in Major League Baseball for lefty base hits. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Bowden Francis in today's game. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Fenway Park grades out as the #6 field in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Brian Serven pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 9th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Brian Serven's speed has improved this season. His 25.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.96 ft/sec now.