San Diego @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field projects as the #27 park in the league for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Over the past two weeks, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 91.9 mph to 88.9 mph. Compared to his seasonal figure of 4.8°, Yandy Diaz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.1°) in the past two weeks' worth of games. Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (0.5°) is considerably lower than his 4.9° figure last year.

The #3 stadium in MLB for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field. The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Luis Arraez's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 86.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 84.1-mph over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Martin Perez in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. This season, Jose Caballero has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 90.3 mph compared to last year's 87.7 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Jose Siri will have an advantage today. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Siri will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Jose Siri has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 15.9% seasonal rate to 26.7% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage over Martin Perez today. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, Christopher Morel has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 35.3° mark over the past 7 days.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Martin Perez. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Dylan Carlson will hold that advantage today. Dylan Carlson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph to 94.6-mph in the past week.

Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Martin Perez today. Taylor Walls will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 14.4% on the season to 50% in the past 7 days. Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, putting up a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .281 — a .047 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Brandon Lowe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 95.1-mph. Last year, Brandon Lowe had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Despite posting a .295 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Xander Bogaerts has had some very poor luck given the .033 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328. With a .266 batting average this year, Xander Bogaerts finds himself in the 77th percentile.

Luis Campusano pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Donovan Solano is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Donovan Solano's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 13.5% on the season to 50% over the past 7 days. Donovan Solano has compiled a .337 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 84th percentile. Placing in the 94th percentile, Donovan Solano has put up a .299 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Jackson Merrill has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.9% seasonal rate to 17.9% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Jackson Merrill has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 92.4-mph over the past two weeks. Over the last two weeks, Jackson Merrill's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.2%.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Manny Machado has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 96.1-mph in the past week's worth of games. Manny Machado has recorded a .335 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 75th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Manny Machado has put up a .279 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Alex Jackson will have the upper hand today. Alex Jackson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Jackson's true offensive skill to be a .277, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .085 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .192 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Jurickson Profar has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 93.8-mph in the past 7 days. Jurickson Profar's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 47.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, David Peralta will have the upper hand in today's game. David Peralta's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 46.8% to 52.7%. In notching a .324 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, David Peralta finds himself in the 75th percentile. David Peralta has recorded a .268 batting average this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today. Jake Cronenworth has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Compared to last season, Jake Cronenworth has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 47.6% this season.

In the past two weeks, Mason McCoy's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 62.5% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.