Kansas City @ Houston props

Hitters such as Michael Massey with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Michael Massey has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 91.9-mph in the past 14 days. Michael Massey's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 46% on the season to 58.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 9th-worst field in MLB for RHB base hits. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game.

Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Victor Caratini is in the 82nd percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .266. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Victor Caratini has notched a .335 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Posting a .281 batting average this year, Victor Caratini has performed in the 89th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Vinnie Pasquantino ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season's 90-mph average. With a 1.9 K/BB rate this year, Vinnie Pasquantino has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 80th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, MJ Melendez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Extreme groundball hitters like MJ Melendez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. MJ Melendez has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, MJ Melendez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.4° angle in the last 14 days. MJ Melendez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .210 figure is a good deal lower than his .233 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the past week, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 17.6%.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Yordan Alvarez will hold that advantage today. In the past week, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.2% up to 27.3%.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Paul DeJong will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez today. Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Paul DeJong usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Paul DeJong has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Maikel Garcia is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Maikel Garcia will have an advantage in today's game. Maikel Garcia's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 11.5% to 16.7%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.282) implies that Maikel Garcia has suffered from bad luck this year with his .243 actual batting average.

When assessing his batting average ability, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's game. Yainer Diaz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 93.3-mph. Over the last 7 days, Yainer Diaz's 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage today. Alex Bregman has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.4-mph EV. Alex Bregman's launch angle recently (30.1° over the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 18.9° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last week, Jeremy Pena's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.6% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dairon Blanco in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Dairon Blanco will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Dairon Blanco has hit 36.8% of his balls in the air 100 mph or faster since the start of last season, ranking in the 77th percentile. Dairon Blanco has put up a .322 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Salvador Perez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Salvador Perez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

Jake Meyers's BABIP talent is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Jake Meyers's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.7%. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck this year. His .294 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

Jon Singleton will have the handedness advantage against Seth Lugo in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jon Singleton's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (24° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 10.6° seasonal mark.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Tyler Gentry will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 42% on the season to 55.9% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for homers. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Ben Gamel will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ben Gamel will hold that advantage in today's game. Ben Gamel's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (11.2° in the last two weeks) is considerably better than his 4.8° seasonal mark.

Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Freddy Fermin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Freddy Fermin pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Grading out in the 90th percentile, Freddy Fermin has notched a .335 BABIP this year.

Garrett Hampson's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Garrett Hampson will have an edge in today's game. Garrett Hampson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 13.9% to 17.8%.