Chicago @ Washington Picks & Props

The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Over the last 14 days, Michael Busch has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 24.2° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.6°. Michael Busch has compiled a .335 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 75th percentile. Placing in the 93rd percentile, Michael Busch has notched a .342 BABIP this year.

The #2 ballpark in baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs. Luis Garcia has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 84.2-mph in the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 8.9°, Luis Garcia has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 14° mark over the past week. Luis Garcia has been lucky this year, putting up a .335 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .019 gap.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's BABIP talent is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. In the past week's worth of games, Pete Crow-Armstrong's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 13.3%. Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .290 figure is a good deal lower than his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand today. The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so CJ Abrams stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. CJ Abrams pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. James Wood will hold the platoon advantage over Javier Assad in today's matchup.

The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. The switch-hitting Drew Millas will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Javier Assad. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Drew Millas will hold that advantage today. Drew Millas is remarkably athletic, placing in the 75th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.19 ft/sec this year.

Andres Chaparro is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Andres Chaparro will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Andres Chaparro has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 91.3-mph. Andres Chaparro's launch angle of late (31.3° in the last week) is considerably better than his 15.5° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jose Tena is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Jose Tena will hold the platoon advantage against Javier Assad today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Dansby Swanson will hold the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in today's game. Dansby Swanson has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9% seasonal rate to 16% in the last 14 days.

Dylan Crews is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Dylan Crews will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Dylan Crews has been hot recently, compiling a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) in the past week. In the last 7 days, Dylan Crews has averaged an impressive 101.1-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced measure of home run potential.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Ian Happ has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph figure. Ian Happ's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 14.1% to 21.4%.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cody Bellinger has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 83rd percentile with a 1.86 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Nico Hoerner will have the handedness advantage against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. As it relates to his batting average, Nico Hoerner has experienced some negative variance this year. His .256 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have an advantage in today's game. In the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.4-mph in recent games.

Jacob Young's BABIP ability is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Jacob Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Jacob Young's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 1.7% up to 7.7%.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. The switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Javier Assad. Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Keibert Ruiz will hold that advantage today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that Javier Assad throws from, Joey Gallo will have an advantage in today's game. Joey Gallo will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP. Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Joey Gallo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Isaac Paredes will have the handedness advantage against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (21.2°) is significantly higher than his 18° mark last year. Isaac Paredes has shown strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 94th percentile with a 1.39 K/BB rate.

This game is projected to have the 15th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Miguel Amaya will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Miguel Amaya has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Miguel Amaya has made big strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 5.2% seasonal rate to 15.6% over the last 14 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 9.4°, Miguel Amaya has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 19.5° mark in the past two weeks.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Christian Bethancourt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against DJ Herz in today's matchup. Christian Bethancourt's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 15.2% to 21.8%.

Patrick Wisdom is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate at 85°. Batting from the opposite that DJ Herz throws from, Patrick Wisdom will have the upper hand today. Patrick Wisdom's launch angle this season (28.3°) is quite a bit better than his 21.5° angle last season. Patrick Wisdom's 18.9% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.