Kansas City @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst field in MLB for RHB BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Alec Marsh will have the handedness advantage over Jeremy Pena today. Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.3°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst field in MLB for RHB BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Alec Marsh throws from, Yainer Diaz will not have the upper hand in today's game. Yainer Diaz has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst field in MLB for RHB BABIP. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Ronel Blanco will have the handedness advantage over Bobby Witt Jr. today. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

Maikel Garcia's batting average ability is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Maikel Garcia has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.1-mph in the last 7 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.281) may lead us to conclude that Maikel Garcia has experienced some negative variance this year with his .240 actual batting average.

The #10 park in the majors for suppressing base hits to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. In today's matchup, Yordan Alvarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (90th percentile). Yordan Alvarez has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .312 figure is a good deal higher than his .288 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Paul DeJong has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.4% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 14 days. Paul DeJong's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (20.9°) is significantly better than his 15.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the past 14 days, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph lately.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game. Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13% up to 20%. There has been a significant improvement in Salvador Perez's launch angle from last year's 15.3° to 18.8° this season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Alex Bregman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.3% up to 11.8%. Alex Bregman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph average.

Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage against Ronel Blanco in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Adam Frazier's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86-mph over the course of the season to 89.2-mph in recent games. Adam Frazier's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 19.7% on the season to 25% over the last 14 days. Adam Frazier has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .208 figure is quite a bit lower than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an advantage in today's game. In the past week, Kyle Isbel's 21.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Ben Gamel has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Ben Gamel will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Ben Gamel will hold that advantage in today's game. Ben Gamel's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (12.8° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 4.5° seasonal angle.

Freddy Fermin pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Sporting a .332 BABIP this year, Freddy Fermin finds himself in the 89th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. In Major League Baseball, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the past two weeks, Jake Meyers's 35.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.1%. Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .228 figure is a fair amount lower than his .270 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

In Major League Baseball, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Shay Whitcomb will hold that advantage today. The standard deviation of Shay Whitcomb's launch angle has been very consistent lately (32° over the past 14 days), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

Batting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Jason Heyward will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jason Heyward will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.239) suggests that Jason Heyward has experienced some negative variance this year with his .207 actual batting average.

Michael Massey is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Michael Massey will have the upper hand today. Michael Massey has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 91.6-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89-mph mark. Michael Massey's launch angle recently (30° over the past 7 days) is significantly better than his 15.3° seasonal angle. Compared to last season, Michael Massey has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 39.5% to 45.7% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, MJ Melendez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). MJ Melendez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, MJ Melendez will have an edge in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, MJ Melendez has suffered from bad luck this year. His .213 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Batting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Jon Singleton will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage in today's game. Jon Singleton's maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to measure power) has been 115.4 mph this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.