Chicago @ Baltimore Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Miguel Vargas's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (29.6° in the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 20.5° seasonal angle.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Gunnar Henderson has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Over the last 7 days, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 94.7 mph to 82.2 mph. In the past week's worth of games, Gunnar Henderson's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.8%. Despite posting a .378 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side given the .015 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .363.

Corey Julks is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Corey Julks hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Corey Julks's launch angle in recent games (4.5° in the past week) is considerably worse than his 13.2° seasonal mark.

20% of the time that Ryan O'Hearn has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for. Ryan O'Hearn has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Ryan O'Hearn's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4.8°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 13.3°. Checking in at the 22nd percentile, the hardest ball Ryan O'Hearn has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 108.8 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 8th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP talent. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Austin Slater has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Austin Slater will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have an advantage in today's game.

Luis Robert's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Luis Robert is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Luis Robert has been unlucky this year, compiling a .289 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .033 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Cedric Mullins II will have the upper hand in today's game. Cedric Mullins II pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Cedric Mullins II will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Korey Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Korey Lee has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Korey Lee has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 91.3-mph in the past 7 days.

Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Corbin Burnes throws from, Nicky Lopez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Nicky Lopez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.2-mph over the course of the season to 98.5-mph in recent games.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Emmanuel Rivera has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Emmanuel Rivera will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Emmanuel Rivera has had bad variance on his side this year. His .266 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

Eloy Jimenez's batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Eloy Jimenez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Eloy Jimenez will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dominic Fletcher will hold the platoon advantage over Corbin Burnes in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.247) provides evidence that Dominic Fletcher has experienced some negative variance this year with his .222 actual batting average. With a .332 BABIP since the start of last season, Dominic Fletcher finds himself in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF dimensions among all stadiums. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Flexen in today's matchup.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Corbin Burnes in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #7 stadium in MLB for right-handed BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 18th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP talent. Colton Cowser is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Adley Rutschman pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-best field in the league for lefty base hits. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Anthony Santander will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Lenyn Sosa has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.