MLB Picks

While I do think the Atlanta Braves are better equipped to take advantage of this pitching matchup, Nolan McLean is striking out 28.5% of batters and ranks in the 95th percentile of qualified pitchers in fastball run value. Meanwhile, the New York Mets only managed one run on four hits over 5.1 innings the last time they faced Martin Perez. I’m backing the Under, and I’d be willing to do so at a flat nine runs as well.

The Yankees scored five runs in Friday’s win. That’s the only time in the last 13 games they’ve reached that mark, despite playing Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, and Twins, all sub-.500 teams, including two last-place squads. Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt are all hitting below .150 over the last two weeks.

Ryan is in the 85th percentile in strikeout rate, and only four A.L. teams have whiffed more than the Yankees.

The St. Louis Cardinals continue to be one of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out, sitting just over 20% on the season and down to 17.8% over their last 21 games. Their lineup features six hitters with strikeout rates under 17%, including four at 13.3% or lower, creating a consistently low-K profile. They now face Chicago Cubs right hander Javier Assad, who grades out with the lowest matchup strikeout on the slate per Batters-Box. Assad owns a 13.10% strikeout rate at home and 12.28% over his last three starts. At -120, the under feels playable, but price sensitive.

Jac Caglianone has been crushing the baseball against right handed pitching, posting a 68.6% hard hit rate and 23% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances. He has been even better lately, producing a 73.68% hard hit rate and 26.32% barrel rate across his last 30 trips to the plate. This afternoon, he draws Aaron Nola, who has struggled badly against left handed hitters. Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, Nola owns a 6.23 ERA while allowing a 46% hard hit rate, 13.5% barrel rate, and a .583 xSLG. Caglianone is in a prime spot to leave the yard.

Andrew Vaughn finds himself in a dream matchup against Arizona left hander Eduardo Rodríguez on Sunday. The Brewers first baseman enters with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 80% of Rodríguez's pitch mix. Vaughn has crushed southpaws all season, posting a .408 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.231 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances against them, along with a 48.8% hard hit rate. Rodríguez has struggled badly against right handed hitters, allowing a 77.3% elevation rate on the road and a .599 expected slugging percentage over his last 90 batted balls. At +760, the value is impossible to ignore.

Asking for 4+ runs in the first five innings is never an easy ask, but this spot in Coors makes it worth considering. The Giants bring a deep lineup with multiple elite rated hitters and a strong overall offensive profile, making them one of the toughest matchups on the slate. Tanner Gordon enters with the worst pitcher rating on the board and concerning underlying metrics across the board, including poor strikeout, hard contact, and contact quality numbers. At home he has been hit hard all season with a 9.70 ERA and elevated barrel and hard hit rates. The matchup leans heavily toward San Francisco.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit righties much better of late, posting a .317 average since June 1. He leads the San Diego Padres by a margin of 14 hits during that span. The majority of his damage has been done with singles. Nearly 63% of his hits against right-handed pitchers were singles. Bet to -125.

Ranger Suarez has given up seven earned runs over seven away starts since April 1, conceding multiple runs once. While Ryan Johnson has been underwhelming overall, he has allowed one run in his last 11 innings of work and held the Mariners to one in his only matchup vs. a Bottom-15 team in OPS against righties. Bet to -115.

Kevin Gausman has allowed 14 earned runs across his last three starts, and he won't have an easier time against a Giants lineup that is slashing .393/.413/.719 against the right-hander. Meanwhile, Landen Roupp boasts both a Barrel % and hard-hit rate that rank in the 93rd and 95th percentile at Baseball Savant. Take the Giants to prevail at home.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.