Cleveland @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Ben Lively will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Lively's large platoon split. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences today. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today. Compared to his seasonal figure of 15.3°, Bobby Witt Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.3°) over the last 14 days. Bobby Witt Jr. has been lucky this year, compiling a .417 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .379 — a .038 deviation.

Steven Kwan has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today. Steven Kwan will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Steven Kwan's launch angle in recent games (5° over the last week) is quite a bit lower than his 14.6° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive ability to be a .310, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .037 deviation between that figure and his actual .347 wOBA.

In Major League Baseball, Kauffman Stadium's RF dimensions are the deepest. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andres Gimenez today. Andres Gimenez's launch angle this season (9.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.9° mark last year. In the past week's worth of games, Andres Gimenez's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.7%. Andres Gimenez has posted a .275 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.

In today's game, Jose Ramirez is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.4% rate (99th percentile). Jose Ramirez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 91-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 88.7-mph in the last 7 days. From last season to this one, Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 44.3% to 39.1%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.253) implies that Jose Ramirez has had positive variance on his side this year with his .275 actual batting average.

Ben Lively will hold the platoon advantage over Tommy Pham today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Lively's large platoon split. Today, Tommy Pham is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (94th percentile). The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best among every team on the slate today. Over the last week, Tommy Pham's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Tommy Pham's 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.9%.

Michael Massey is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Michael Massey will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Lively in today's matchup... and moreover, Lively has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in the league for righty batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Maikel Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Bo Naylor will have the upper hand today. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

Jhonkensy Noel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in the league for righty batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Kyle Manzardo will hold the platoon advantage over Seth Lugo in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Because of Ben Lively's large platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in the league for righty batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Freddy Fermin will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Freddy Fermin has put up a .333 BABIP this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Salvador Perez ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in the league for righty batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate at 81°. Daniel Schneemann will hold the platoon advantage over Seth Lugo in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals. Daniel Schneemann grades out in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (48.6% rate this year).

Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-best park in the league for righty batting average. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Paul DeJong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, MJ Melendez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #2 park in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense. This matchup is projected to have the 14th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Because of Ben Lively's large platoon split, MJ Melendez will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Robbie Grossman has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.