MLB Picks

A +600 price on Elly De La Cruz to hit a home run against Max Meyer is simply too long for Thursday—I make it closer to +460. De La Cruz has already drawn multiple walks in his at-bats in Miami, which suggests he’s seeing the ball well in a park where he’s had success before. Beyond that, he’s 3-for-6 against Meyer in his career with two doubles, indicating he tracks Meyer’s slider effectively. I also don’t expect Meyer to pitch deep into the game, which would force Miami to rely heavily on its bullpen. That only adds to De La Cruz’s appeal as a switch hitter, since he can maintain the platoon advantage even after the starter exits.

This series has been my kryptonite this week when it comes to moneyline bets, but that won’t stop me from backing the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday. Max Meyer is essentially a two-pitch pitcher right now, relying heavily on his slider while struggling to command his four-seam fastball. That should allow Reds hitters to sit on the slider and force him to throw his fastball in the zone for strikes. If that’s the case, Cincinnati should be able to manufacture runs and potentially chase Meyer early, leading to extended exposure to the Marlins bullpen. I make the Reds closer to -110 favorites in this spot, but the market is offering +110, which makes this a number worth attacking.

Rooker was one of the heroes for the A’s yesterday with a game-winning sac fly RBI in the top of the ninth, and I’m banking on him to make a splash again today. The Oakland offense has been wildly erratic so far this season, but Rooker’s 2025 numbers suggest he can get to Yankees starter Ryan Weathers. 

Rooker had a .293 batting average against lefties last year, to go with a .885 OPS, and he blasted a home run off Weathers in a 2024 matchup during the pitcher’s time with the Miami Marlins.

 I am not high on Ryan Weathers, and I don’t think the Yankees are either, which is why it's more of a stopgap while the rest of the rotation gets healthy rather than an everyday guy. The pitch-to-contact guy who doesn’t get groundballs (bottom 40 percentile career) and historically bottom 30 percentile chase rate is one that a viable A's lineup can have success against.

This matchup has gone Over in six of the last 10 head-to-heads. Detroit's lineup has genuine pop, and Minnesota has averaged over six runs per game in its last three home games against these Tigers.

Once both starters exit, the Minnesota Twins bullpen is walking hitters at a nearly 15% rate. Detroit's relief corps is meaningfully better across every underlying metric. Trust Flaherty and the Tigers' bullpen edge. 

Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed eight hits and one run through 12 frames. However, he had an ugly 5.02 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in 39 starts over the previous two years, so expect major regression. The New York Mets are giving the pill to Nolan McLean who is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and has a devastating six-pitch arsenal. In 10 MLB starts going back to last season, McLean has pitched to a 2.16 ERA with a .189 OBA and 69 punchouts through 58 1/3 innings. With the Mets also boasting better hitting metrics and the Arizona having a shaky bullpen, I'm playing the run line.

Eduardo Rodriguez is off to a good start but he has a rough history at Citi Field. He allowed eight earned runs there in an April start last season and gave up five earned runs there in 2024. Nolan McLean has been sharp to start the season, and Arizona’s offense ranks a miserable 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching. With the Mets’ bullpen sitting third in ERA compared to Arizona’s at 26th, the matchup sets up for a Mets bounce-back win.

Left-hander Anthony Kay will be on the mound for the Chicago White Sox, and the weather won’t be doing him any favors against a right-handed bat like Bobby Witt Jr. on Thursday. It’s expected to be sunny, 78 degrees, with the wind blowing out to left field at 14 mph at Kauffman Stadium—perfect conditions for Witt’s pull side against a lefty. Kay has already allowed two home runs this season, both to right-handed hitters. Witt is listed at +450, but I make this closer to +330, which is why I’m hitting the button on this home run prop.

After some bumps in the road last year, Lugo is trying to rediscover his stellar 2024 form, which included a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts. The early signs are promising this season. The veteran racked up seven strikeouts in five innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers at the weekend, and he also hit this Over in his final three starts last season.

Look for the righty to settle in today against an underwhelming Chicago White Sox lineup. Andrew Benintendi and Reese McGuire are the only White Sox batters with a career hit against Lugo, and Chicago is tied for the fourth-fewest runs per game this year (3.42).

Randy Vasquez was back down to his 2025 velocity (93.6 mph) during his April 4 start. His 5.37 xERA and 4.6% K-BB% with that velocity a year ago hardly indicate future success.

Chase Dollander is up a tick to 98.8 mph, has a solid 102 Pitching+, and will throw in tandem with an effective bullpen (2.74 SIERA). San Diego has a lowly 85 wRC+ against RHP, so there’s cause for concern both at the dish and on the mound.

Neither lineup has performed well enough to have confidence in an offense-oriented game. Colorado checks in with a 94 wRC+ while San Diego is even worse at 81.

The Padres have one of the most talented bullpens in the league, whereas the Rockies have been one of the most effective. 

Colorado has been an Under bettor’s dream this season, cashing tickets in nine of their 12 contests.