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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 19, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.49 |
+116 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -185 
|
|
4.62 |
-129 
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +164
|
Detroit
- Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Jobes last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Jobes last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 10-1 in Tigers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 7-0 in Burkes last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Burkes last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Burkes last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.18 |
-130 
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.95 |
+112
|
u8.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -150 
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League East.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Gassers last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Rogers' last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Joey Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
u0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.68 |
+105
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.53 |
-120
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +172
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 5-0 in Painters last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Painters last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
NY Mets
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Scotts last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
o0.5+191
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+116
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
3.84 |
-130
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +172
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 games following a win.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Over is 5-0 in Peraltas last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 4-0 in Peraltas last 4 starts.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+155
|
o8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -143
|
|
4.37 |
-177
|
u8.5 -118
|
-1.5 +128
|
Athletics
- Over is 3-0-1 in last 4 on grass.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts as an underdog.
- are 5-1 in Lopezs last 6 starts on grass.
- are 8-2 in Lopezs last 10 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 overall.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Guardians last 5 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Guardians last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
o1.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.64 |
+100
|
o8.0 -114
|
-1.5 +165 
|
|
4.38 |
-112
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -184
|
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-1 in Royals last 7 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Camerons last 6 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1 in Royals last 9 games as an underdog.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-2 in Chandlers last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Chandlers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in Chandlers last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.43 |
-134
|
o9.5 -108
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
4.89 |
+120
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 9-1-1 in Cubs last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-1 in Boyds last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boyds last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Lodolos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lodolos last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-118
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
3.74 |
+105
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -165
|
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Sorianos last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 overall.
- Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Quantrills last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+221)
o0.5+221
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+100
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
5.01 |
-115
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +161
|
Atlanta
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Braves last 7 on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Holmes' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Houston
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Astros are 6-0 in Wesneskis last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Astros last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Christian Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
o0.5+208
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.78 |
+111
|
o8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.26 |
-125
|
u9.0 -125
|
-1.5 +172
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Alvarezs last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Alvarezs last 7 starts as a road underdog.
St. Louis
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Cardinals last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in McGreevys last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in McGreevys last 4 starts vs. National League East.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
o0.5+167
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.55 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
5.44 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Millers last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Millers last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Millers last 6 road starts.
- Over is 4-0 in Millers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Colorado
- Under is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 home games.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rockies last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.12 |
-138
|
o7.0 -134
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.32 |
+125
|
u7.5 -118
|
+1.5 -140
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 road games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Schlittlers last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Yankees last 8 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Pfaadts last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+337)
o0.5+337
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+132
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -164
|
|
4.31 |
-150
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +141
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Perezs last 4 starts vs. National League West.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
San Diego
- Over is 9-0 in Padres last 9 games following a win.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Griffin Conine o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.73 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
4.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
San Francisco
- Over is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Giants last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-2 in Giants last 10 games following a loss.
LA Dodgers
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Skubals last 5 starts on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
-108
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.80 |
-108
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +180
|
Minnesota
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Ryans last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Twins last 7 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 7-1 in Detmers' last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in Angels last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Joe Ryan o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+230)
o5.5-150
DET
@
CHW
Sat, Sep 19 • 2:10 PM ET
Moneyline
DET (+116)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Chicago’s hitters are offering little resistance down the stretch, batting .211 with a brutal 28.7% strikeout rate over the last fourteen days. Meanwhile, Detroit’s relief corps has turned into an absolute buzzsaw, dialing up a microscopic 2.01 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 1.84 BB/9.
Jackson Jobe brings lethal stuff to the hill against an unannounced South Side arm, setting up Detroit as an exceptional plus-money look.
Total RBIs
Gleyber Torres o0.5 Total RBIs (+253)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gleyber Torres in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Gleyber Torres is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to righties.. Gleyber Torres has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.. Placing in the 81st percentile, Gleyber Torres has put up a .320 BABIP this year.
MIL
@
BAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Robert Gasser will hold the platoon advantage against Gunnar Henderson today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Gasser's large platoon split.. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.. Gunnar Henderson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 84.4-mph in the last two weeks.. Gunnar Henderson has compiled a .261 BABIP this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.
Total Hits
Joey Ortiz u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Joey Ortiz is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.. 13% of the time that Joey Ortiz has started against a left-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for.. Joey Ortiz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.. Joey Ortiz's launch angle this season (6.3°) is quite a bit lower than his 13.8° mark last year.. Joey Ortiz has been lucky this year, putting up a .319 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .018 deviation.
PHI
@
NYM
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Andrew Painter u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to -140. Andrew Painter has been in strong form, posting a 2.93 FIP over the last month while limiting opponents to a 33.7% hard-hit rate. The Mets enter with just an 81 wRC+ over the last week, and Painter has surrendered only one earned run across his last two road starts.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Juan Soto will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Painter in today's matchup.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
BOS
@
TB
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Yandy Diaz o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Yandy Diaz will hold the platoon advantage against Payton Tolle in today's matchup.. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. The #2 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Trevor Story's launch angle lately (27.3° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 15.2° seasonal angle.. With a .349 BABIP this year, Trevor Story is positioned in the 90th percentile.
ATH
@
CLE
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Zack Gelof o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Zack Gelof is penciled in 4th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Zack Gelof has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past two weeks.
Total RBIs
Donovan Walton o0.5 Total RBIs (+282)
Projection 0.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Donovan Walton is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 field in the majors for left-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Donovan Walton will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Bibee in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.9°, Donovan Walton has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 16.4° figure in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Donovan Walton has notched a .348 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 86th percentile.
KC
@
PIT
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Brandon Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Brandon Lowe has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past 7 days.. Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.4-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 95-mph.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball's 18th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oneil Cruz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Oneil Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 98.2-mph.. With a 28.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Oneil Cruz is ranked in the 84th percentile for power.
CHC
@
CIN
Sat, Sep 19 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total Home Runs (+406)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 21%. Alex Bregman is in excellent form, combining two homers over his last six games with a .550 ISO and plenty of lift. Nick Lodolo has surrendered 2.08 HR/9 across his previous two starts, while Cincinnati’s bullpen has also struggled to suppress power. Bregman is appealing at this price.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.05
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #4 ballpark in the game for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have an advantage in today's game.
TOR
@
TEX
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+186)
Projection 0.89
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Globe Life Field projects as the #29 ballpark in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.
Total RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
ATL
@
HOU
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+102)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Atlanta’s offensive output has evaporated over the last two weeks, slipping to 26th overall with an 84 wRC+ and a meager .291 OBP, while their arms are getting hurt by the long ball (1.74 HR/9).
Houston is generating far more raw power right now (.210 ISO, 105 wRC+). Hayden Wesneski should outduel Grant Holmes in what essentially profiles as a pick’em spot for the Astros.
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Riley is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.. Minute Maid Park projects as the #27 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The league's 3rd-tallest fences can be found at Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.. Hayden Wesneski will hold the platoon advantage over Austin Riley in today's game.
WAS
@
STL
Sat, Sep 19 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Daylen Lile is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 95°.. Daylen Lile will have the handedness advantage over Michael McGreevy today.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the highest temperatures of all games today at 95°.. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, CJ Abrams will have an advantage in today's matchup.
NYY
@
AZ
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total Home Runs (+539)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Cody Bellinger’s power has taken off lately, with three homers over his last six games and a .360 ISO. He’s also elevating the ball consistently, while Brandon Pfaadt has allowed plenty of hard contact and 1.72 HR/9 recently. At 15%, Bellinger offers worthwhile upside in Arizona.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play down to +100. Cody Bellinger is swinging a scorching bat, hitting .440 over his last six games with three homers and a .360 ISO. Brandon Pfaadt has struggled recently, allowing nine earned runs over his last two starts with a 50% hard-hit rate. Bellinger is in a strong spot to keep producing.
MIA
@
SD
Sat, Sep 19 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor
Play up to 25%. Fernando Tatis Jr. is finally showing the power expected from him, going deep three times over the last week with a .414 ISO. His hard-hit and barrel numbers are climbing, and Eury Perez has struggled badly with home runs lately. Miami’s bullpen gives Tatis another favorable path to a long ball.
Total RBIs
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Petco Park has the 5th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest humidity on the slate at 79%.. Hitting from the opposite that Casey Mize throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand today.
MIN
@
LAA
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Bases
Josh Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+225)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Angel Stadium has the 2nd-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Considering Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Josh Lowe will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Josh Lowe will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
Strikeouts Thrown
Joe Ryan o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+475)
Projection 7.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Joe Ryan in the 92nd percentile among all starters in the league.. Joe Ryan has averaged 95.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.. The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oswald Peraza, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Mike Trout, Zach Neto).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 4th-best field in baseball for strikeouts.. Joe Ryan was in good form in his last outing and posted 7 strikeouts.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
