Seattle @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today's game. J.P. Crawford hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, J.P. Crawford's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.8-mph over the course of the season to 94.2-mph recently. When it comes to his batting average, J.P. Crawford has been unlucky this year. His .197 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .239.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Luke Raley is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Gibson in today's matchup. Luke Raley hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Luke Raley has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.3% seasonal rate to 31.3% in the last two weeks.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, Josh Rojas will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Josh Rojas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Josh Rojas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 46.5% on the season to 60% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Paul Goldschmidt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.6% seasonal rate to 20.6% in the past 14 days. Paul Goldschmidt has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 101.3-mph over the past 7 days.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-largest outfield among all parks — generally bad for homers. The weather forecast expects the 4th-most favorable pitching weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Kyle Gibson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup. Julio Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Julio Rodriguez has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 24th percentile with a 3.61 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today's matchup. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Alec Burleson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 14.5% on the season to 33.3% in the last week's worth of games.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 91.4-mph in the last 7 days. Masyn Winn has recorded a .275 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Masyn Winn has notched a .272 batting average this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today. Over the last 14 days, Pedro Pages's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Gilbert in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Lars Nootbaar will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Randy Arozarena's launch angle in recent games (4.8° in the past week) is significantly worse than his 13.7° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Randy Arozarena's true offensive skill to be a .342, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .022 disparity between that mark and his actual .320 wOBA.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jose Fermin's quickness has improved this season. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.01 ft/sec now. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) implies that Jose Fermin has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .251 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage in today's game. Brendan Donovan has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.4-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Jorge Polanco's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (29.2° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably better than his 20.7° seasonal angle. Jorge Polanco has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball in the last two weeks' worth of games — 110.1-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck this year. His .284 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .324.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Jordan Walker's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.5-mph now compared to just 89.4-mph then. Jordan Walker has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.7-mph.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Cal Raleigh's launch angle lately (25.3° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 21.2° seasonal mark. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Cal Raleigh has experienced some negative variance this year. His .313 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .341.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 45% on the season to 68.8% over the last 7 days.

Victor Robles is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Victor Robles has put up a .344 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 87th percentile. By putting up a .292 batting average this year, Victor Robles finds himself in the 93rd percentile.

Mitch Haniger hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .279 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mitch Haniger has been unlucky given the .031 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310. This year, Mitch Haniger has an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, which ranks among the elite in MLB at the 75th percentile.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, going from 18.3% on the season to 26.7% over the last 7 days. By putting up a 1.6 K/BB rate this year, Justin Turner has shown favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 91st percentile.