MLB Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed eight hits and one run through 12 frames. However, he had an ugly 5.02 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP in 39 starts over the previous two years, so expect major regression. The New York Mets are giving the pill to Nolan McLean who is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and has a devastating six-pitch arsenal. In 10 MLB starts going back to last season, McLean has pitched to a 2.16 ERA with a .189 OBA and 69 punchouts through 58 1/3 innings. With the Mets also boasting better hitting metrics and the Arizona having a shaky bullpen, I'm playing the run line.

Eduardo Rodriguez is off to a good start but he has a rough history at Citi Field. He allowed eight earned runs there in an April start last season and gave up five earned runs there in 2024. Nolan McLean has been sharp to start the season, and Arizona’s offense ranks a miserable 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching. With the Mets’ bullpen sitting third in ERA compared to Arizona’s at 26th, the matchup sets up for a Mets bounce-back win.

Let’s keep attacking one of the best home run environments on the board and go back to the Chicago side with the No. 3 hitter, who projects better than his current price. THE BAT has Miguel Vargas closer to +500, creating a solid edge. Vargas draws a favorable matchup against Seth Lugo, a pitcher who can be vulnerable to the long ball. The profile fits — we’re not looking for singles here, just power — and the conditions only help with double-digit winds blowing out. On a thin slate, there’s value in double-dipping against a homer-prone arm in a strong weather spot.

Left-hander Anthony Kay will be on the mound for the Chicago White Sox, and the weather won’t be doing him any favors against a right-handed bat like Bobby Witt Jr. on Thursday. It’s expected to be sunny, 78 degrees, with the wind blowing out to left field at 14 mph at Kauffman Stadium—perfect conditions for Witt’s pull side against a lefty. Kay has already allowed two home runs this season, both to right-handed hitters. Witt is listed at +450, but I make this closer to +330, which is why I’m hitting the button on this home run prop.

Randy Vasquez was back down to his 2025 velocity (93.6 mph) during his April 4 start. His 5.37 xERA and 4.6% K-BB% with that velocity a year ago hardly indicate future success.

Chase Dollander is up a tick to 98.8 mph, has a solid 102 Pitching+, and will throw in tandem with an effective bullpen (2.74 SIERA). San Diego has a lowly 85 wRC+ against RHP, so there’s cause for concern both at the dish and on the mound.

Neither lineup has performed well enough to have confidence in an offense-oriented game. Colorado checks in with a 94 wRC+ while San Diego is even worse at 81.

The Padres have one of the most talented bullpens in the league, whereas the Rockies have been one of the most effective. 

Colorado has been an Under bettor’s dream this season, cashing tickets in nine of their 12 contests. 

Tampa Bay owns just a .503 lifetime OPS against Max Fried, and with the Yankees left-hander off to a 2–0 start with a 1.35 ERA, the Bronx Bombers will one-up their AL East counterparts at the Trop.

Milwaukee ranks Top 5 in runs per game and OPS, and the Brewers are set to take advantage of Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin, whom they have slashed .351/.439/.625 against. The home team should roll on Friday.