Chicago @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output. Jarren Duran's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 13.9% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, posting a .369 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .030 deviation.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output. Rafael Devers has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 13.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week. In the past week's worth of games, Rafael Devers's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 95.4 mph to 87.5 mph. Rafael Devers's launch angle in recent games (-0.1° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit worse than his 12.1° seasonal figure. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Rafael Devers has had some very good luck this year. His .373 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .346.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Jacob Amaya has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output. In the last 14 days, Masataka Yoshida's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 91.7 mph to 84.8 mph. Masataka Yoshida's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (2.2° over the past two weeks) is a considerable dropoff from his 10.6° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Masataka Yoshida's true offensive ability to be a .330, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .013 difference between that figure and his actual .343 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Miguel Vargas's launch angle this year (20.5°) is quite a bit better than his 16.6° mark last year. In the last 14 days, Miguel Vargas has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 25.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 20°.

Andrew Benintendi's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andrew Benintendi is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Andrew Benintendi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Luis Robert Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Luis Robert Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 17.6% on the season to 36.4% in the last week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Andrew Vaughn ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Andrew Vaughn hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Andrew Vaughn has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week's worth of games.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. The #6 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Nicky Lopez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Nicky Lopez is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

Korey Lee is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Korey Lee has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph to 90.4-mph over the last two weeks. Over the past 14 days, Korey Lee's 47.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.6%.

The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Dominic Fletcher will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Fletcher has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Dominic Fletcher has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Dominic Fletcher's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.5% up to 10%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Grading out in the 94th percentile, Connor Wong has put up a .342 BABIP this year.

The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand today. Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Triston Casas will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Triston Casas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97-mph over the course of the season to 105-mph of late.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #6 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all parks, Fenway Park's RF dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Gavin Sheets will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Gavin Sheets will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 6th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. The shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7.1% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Lenyn Sosa has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 46.3% to 51.6%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.316) suggests that Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side this year with his .242 actual wOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Tyler O'Neill will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Zach DeLoach is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Zach DeLoach will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split. Zach DeLoach is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Zach DeLoach has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge in today's game. Enmanuel Valdez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Enmanuel Valdez's launch angle from last year's 10.4° to 18.2° this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best stadium in the league for righty base hits. Trevor Story has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.285) suggests that Trevor Story has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .251 actual wOBA. Trevor Story and his 18.2° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 86th percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #5 ballpark in the majors for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Chris Flexen throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Chuckie Robinson has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.