San Francisco @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #5 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Austin Warren will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Warren's large platoon split. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Manny Machado's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (5.7°) is significantly lower than his 8.7° mark last year.

The #5 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Considering Austin Warren's large platoon split, Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a massive disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Fernando Tatis Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 13.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 6.7% in the past week's worth of games.

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park projects as the #26 ballpark in the league for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. In the last 7 days, Jackson Merrill's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 93.2 mph to 90.8 mph.

Petco Park projects as the #26 ballpark in the league for left-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.6-mph figure last year has decreased to 87.6-mph. In the past 14 days, Luis Arraez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Luis Matos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Matos's true offensive skill to be a .300, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .062 disparity between that figure and his actual .238 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Michael Conforto is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Michael Conforto will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Austin Warren today... and even more favorably, Warren has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Grant McCray in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Grant McCray has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Grant McCray will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marco Luciano in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Marco Luciano has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 27.1 ft/sec to 27.62 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts's launch angle this year (11.1°) is a significant increase over his 7.9° mark last year.

Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an advantage today. Mike Yastrzemski has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.5% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week's worth of games. Mike Yastrzemski has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. LaMonte Wade Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Hitting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, LaMonte Wade Jr. will have an edge in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Mason McCoy hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Mason McCoy will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last week, Mason McCoy has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 23.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 7.7°.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Matt Chapman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Matt Chapman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 97.4-mph over the past 14 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's game. Jurickson Profar's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 91.2-mph now compared to just 86.5-mph then.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Grading out in the 94th percentile, Tyler Fitzgerald sports a .377 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Heliot Ramos has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph dropping to 88.7-mph over the last week. In the last week's worth of games, Heliot Ramos's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.2%.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Hitters such as Kyle Higashioka with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Bivens who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 17.5% to 25.7%.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 92°. Curt Casali has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 23.66 ft/sec to 24.33 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Despite posting a .231 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Curt Casali has suffered from bad luck given the .046 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .277. Curt Casali's 20.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball: 93rd percentile.

The 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums are found in Petco Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 94°. Given Austin Warren's large platoon split, Tyler Wade will have an enormous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Tyler Wade will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Tyler Wade has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .245 mark is a good deal lower than his .278 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.