Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's game. Despite posting a .385 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side given the .021 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .364.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Nick Maton will have an advantage today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nick Maton can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Connor Wong has recorded a .346 BABIP this year, placing in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, James McCann has had some very poor luck this year. His .268 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .306.

The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Enmanuel Valdez's launch angle this season (18.2°) is significantly higher than his 10.4° figure last year.

Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand today. Cedric Mullins has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.6% seasonal rate to 50% in the past 7 days.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.8%. Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, putting up a .368 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .029 deviation.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today's matchup. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Triston Casas will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Triston Casas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97-mph over the course of the season to 105-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today. Anthony Santander's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 87-mph over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Adley Rutschman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Jackson Holliday has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Colton Cowser is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Colton Cowser has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ryan O'Hearn will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. Eloy Jimenez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Eloy Jimenez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kutter Crawford. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game. The #5 field in the game for boosting base hits to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Albert Suarez in today's game. Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 5th-best park in the league for righty BABIP. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The shallowest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Trevor Story has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .251 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .285 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Trevor Story has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 18.7° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (87th percentile).