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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 25, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.31 |
+120 
|
o6.5 -114 
|
+1.5 -190 
|
|
4.01 |
-134
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +180 
|
Baltimore
NY Yankees
Top Projection
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
o1.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
-115
|
o6.5 -102 
|
-1.5 +168
|
|
4.33 |
+102
|
u6.5 -108
|
+1.5 -182
|
Chi. Cubs
Boston
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.99 |
+145
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.64 |
-155
|
u6.5 +100 
|
-1.5 +145 
|
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.32 |
-108
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.25 |
-106
|
u8.0 -118
|
-1.5 +150
|
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.34 |
-134
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.76 |
+115
|
u8.5 -128
|
+1.5 -137
|
NY Mets
Washington
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.59 |
+120
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -162
|
|
4.26 |
-130
|
u8.0 -122
|
-1.5 +165
|
Cincinnati
Toronto
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-122
|
o7.5 -141
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.22 |
+106
|
u8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -162
|
Atlanta
Miami
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
-129
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.07 |
+120
|
u8.0 -124
|
+1.5 -148
|
Cleveland
Kansas City
Top Projection
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
o0.5+223
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+194
|
o7.5 -129
|
+1.5 -106
|
|
5.05 |
-200
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
Chi. White Sox
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
o0.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+155
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.49 |
-175
|
u8.0 -112
|
-1.5 +126
|
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Top Projection
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-108
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.59 |
-105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
Texas
Minnesota
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.63 |
-170
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +102
|
|
4.91 |
+148
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
Houston
Athletics
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+116
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.18 |
-134
|
u7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +168
|
Arizona
San Diego
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+115
|
o6.5 -118
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
3.77 |
-130
|
u7.0 -124
|
-1.5 +184
|
LA Angels
Seattle
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.90 |
-360
|
o7.0 -125
|
-2.5 -105
|
|
2.47 |
+305
|
u7.5 -120
|
+2.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
San Francisco
Top Projection
Osleivis Basabe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+265)
o1.5+265
CHC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 25 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Clay Holmes throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Mickey Gasper o1.5 Total Bases (+244)
Projection 1.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Mickey Gasper ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Mickey Gasper is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Mickey Gasper will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Clay Holmes today.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 4:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Dylan Beavers o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Beavers is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brendan Beck throws from, Dylan Beavers will have an advantage today.. Dylan Beavers has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13% over the past 14 days.. Dylan Beavers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 92.8-mph over the last 7 days.
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+154)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Pete Alonso has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Pete Alonso has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 14.7% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the last week.
TB
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.3
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for dingers.. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. J.T. Realmuto has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 92.3-mph.
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Bryce Harper has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
PIT
@
DET
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Rafael Flores Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Rafael Flores is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #10 ballpark in baseball for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. This matchup is expected to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the same side that Jackson Jobe throws from, Rafael Flores will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Rafael Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Riley Greene o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Riley Greene ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Riley Greene is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. In the majors, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage against Bubba Chandler today.. Among every team playing today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
NYM
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Mark Vientos u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in the league for RHB BABIP.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mark Vientos today.. Mark Vientos has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week.. Over the past 7 days, Mark Vientos's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.4%.
Strikeouts Thrown
Andrew Alvarez u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105)
Projection 4.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Alvarez is projected to throw 82 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.. Nationals Park projects as the #21 venue in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Andrew Alvarez's 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers.. Andrew Alvarez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.92 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.31 — a 0.61 K/9 gap.
BAL
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Leody Taveras o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.25
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the 4th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Brendan Beck.. Leody Taveras has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.8-mph figure.
Total Bases
Dylan Beavers o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Dylan Beavers is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 6th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Brendan Beck throws from, Dylan Beavers will have an edge today.. Dylan Beavers has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.4% seasonal rate to 13% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. Dylan Beavers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 87.6-mph EV.
CIN
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Total RBIs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 4th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. The #5 stadium in baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Lodolo today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total Hits
CJ
Carlos Jorge u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Carlos Jorge ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 10th-worst ballpark in MLB for lefty batting average.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions on the slate.. Extreme groundball bats like Carlos Jorge tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like José Soriano.. Carlos Jorge will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.
ATL
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Ronald Acuna Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park profiles as the #24 ballpark in baseball for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Eury Perez will hold the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's game.. In today's game, Ronald Acuna Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (87th percentile).. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup.
Strikeouts Thrown
Eury Perez o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-165)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Eury Perez in the 91st percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.. Eury Perez has averaged 92.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 78th percentile.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which tends to lead to less offense.. Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Eury Perez (40.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.. Eury Perez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats in all categories.
CLE
@
KC
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
CLE (-137)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
I’m backing Cleveland behind Gavin Williams, who enters with a 3.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts in 181 innings. Kansas City counters with Noah Cameron, but the bigger edge comes once the starters leave. The Royals’ bullpen has been a problem all season, while Cleveland owns a 3.75 team ERA. With the Guardians still fighting for the AL Central, I’ll trust the better pitching staff in a meaningful game.
Total Bases
Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The #6 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity on the slate (84%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Vinnie Pasquantino will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Williams today.
COL
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Miguel Vargas u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This contest is expected to have the 2nd-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the same side that Tomoyuki Sugano throws from, Miguel Vargas will have a tough matchup in today's game.. In the past 14 days, Miguel Vargas's 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.2%.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+270)
Projection 1.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #6 park in baseball for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in the majors — generally good for long-balls.. Ezequiel Tovar has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 6.9% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last two weeks' worth of games.. Ezequiel Tovar's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 43.5% on the season to 64.7% over the past two weeks.. Despite posting a .262 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some negative variance given the .029 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .291.
STL
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jordan Walker o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-108)
Projection 2.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. American Family Field has the 4th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage over Robert Gasser in today's game... and the cherry on top, Gasser has a large platoon split.
Total Bases
Joey Ortiz u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 24th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.. The weather report predicts the most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Michael McGreevy will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Ortiz in today's game.. Joey Ortiz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences today.
TEX
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 25 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Kody Clemens u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kody Clemens's BABIP talent is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all major league parks, Target Field's centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.. In the last 14 days, Kody Clemens's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.4% down to 0%.. Kody Clemens has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph dropping to 80.6-mph over the past week.. Over the past 7 days, Kody Clemens's 16.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.9%.
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+179)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 9th-best ballpark in baseball for RHB batting average.. This game is projected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today (81%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today.. Jake Burger has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past week.
HOU
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's rip the best expected ROI Over on the slate today after an easy cash last night with the Reds and Braves. The days are running out at Sutter Health Park, which has been a great Over diamond all year, with the Over hitting there at 64.3% — the highest home rate in all of baseball. Hunter Brown is pitching for a division contender, but he gets a huge Sacramento downgrade, while the A's are running Jacob Lopez, who just gave up 10 runs in his last outing and has allowed 19 runs over his last three starts. The wind is blowing out to center, and it's the best hitting weather on the slate. The fair price is -222 with 11.4 runs expected.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 2.28
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #1 park in MLB for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the highest temperatures on the slate at 87°.
AZ
@
SD
Fri, Sep 25 • 9:40 PM ET
Moneyline
AZ (+116)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Arizona Diamondbacks are trading at 46% on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to 50% against the San Diego Padres. You can't have your back against the wall much more than the Diamondbacks do this weekend, as they basically need a sweep to have any hope of making the postseason. That should lead to their roster being managed like they're playing an elimination game, but I also really like the matchup for Brandon Pfaadt. The heart of the Padres' lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, and that's not a problem for Pfaadt, who has held right-handed hitters to a .599 OPS this season. His hard, sweeping slider runs away from the barrels of right-handed hitters, giving him a pitch that can neutralize the strength of San Diego's lineup. That's why the Diamondbacks have my attention at this price.
Total Bases
Pavin Smith u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 25th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. 24% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.. Petco Park grades out as the #26 stadium in the league for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Pavin Smith in today's matchup.. Pavin Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 11.7% rate last year has decreased to 5.5% this year.
LAA
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Weston Wilson o0.5 Total RBIs (+475)
Projection 0.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Weston Wilson will have an advantage today.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today.
Total Bases
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. T-Mobile Park has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for HRs.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.
LAD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 25 • 10:15 PM ET
Total Bases
TH
Turner Hill o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Turner Hill is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field fences in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Turner Hill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Turner Hill's launch angle of late (21.5° over the last 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 11.2° seasonal mark.
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Oracle Park has the shallowest right field fences in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 14-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Yunior Marte throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have an edge in today's matchup.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
