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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 27, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-109 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +155 
|
|
4.14 |
-104 
|
u8.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -165
|
NY Mets
- Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Washington
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Herzs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Herzs last 4 home starts.
- Under is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Mark Vientos o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+115
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.22 |
-130 
|
u7.5 -117
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Bazs last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Yankees last 4 games as an underdog.
- Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.50 |
-235
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-2.0 -118 
|
|
2.97 |
+215
|
u8.5 -139
|
+2.0 -110
|
LA Dodgers
- Under is 3-0-3 in Dodgers last 6 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 vs. National League West.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 on grass.
Top Projection
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.43 |
-172
|
o9.5 -115
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.50 |
+155
|
u10.0 -114
|
+1.5 +100
|
Houston
- Over is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 overall.
Athletics
- Over is 7-0 in last 7 games a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+196
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.87 |
+140
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -159
|
|
4.66 |
-148
|
u6.5 +105
|
-1.5 +155
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Philadelphia
- Under is 3-0-1 in Walkers last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Phillies are 5-1 in Walkers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Victor Mesa Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+950)
o0.5+950
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.15 |
-122
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +140
|
|
4.42 |
+105
|
u7.5 -104
|
+1.5 -165
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 on fieldturf.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.
- Over is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Boston
- Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
+155
|
o8.5 -113
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
4.48 |
-167
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +125
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 during game 3 of a series.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.61 |
-126
|
o7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.16 |
+112
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in Jones' last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Jones' last 4 road starts.
- Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a win.
- Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+253)
o0.5+253
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.66 |
-130
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
3.83 |
+120
|
u8.5 -108
|
+1.5 -139
|
Cleveland
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. American League Central.
Kansas City
- Over is 7-0 in Royals last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Over is 5-0 in Lynch IVs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
Top Projection
Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+169)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
-135
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +122
|
|
3.88 |
+120
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -139
|
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sorokas last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
San Diego
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
o0.5+350
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.29 |
+155
|
o7.0 -110
|
+1.5 -141
|
|
3.80 |
-175
|
u7.5 -127
|
-1.5 +130
|
LA Angels
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Angels last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Josh Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+100
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.43 |
-110
|
u8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +162
|
Atlanta
- Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 vs. National League East.
- Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 games as a road underdog.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Marlins last 10 home games.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+173
|
o8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -115
|
|
4.50 |
-196
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +106
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 4-0 in Freelands last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Freelands last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 13-2-1 in Rockies last 16 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+168)
o0.5+168
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+205
|
o6.5 -132
|
+1.5 -108
|
|
4.32 |
-230
|
u7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +100
|
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-0-1 in Misiorowskis last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 5-0 in Misiorowskis last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+400)
o0.5+400
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.28 |
-121
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +136
|
|
3.97 |
+106
|
u8.5 -117
|
+1.5 -152
|
Texas
- Over is 8-0 in Rangers last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 11-0 in Rangers last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 6-2 in Rangers last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-2 in Rangers last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Twins last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Danny Jansen o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
NYM
@
WAS
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Marcus Semien u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Marcus Semien's BABIP skill is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Marcus Semien is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 3rd-worst park in MLB for righty base hits.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to less offense.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Marcus Semien in today's game.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the majors.. Juan Soto is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Nationals Park.. Over the past 14 days, Juan Soto's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.5-mph lately.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.
BAL
@
NYY
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Pete Alonso o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
We'll go with Big Pete.
He has hit 43 dingers with a .885 OPS this season, while his Statcast profile includes strong hard-hit numbers across the board as you expect. Particular to this match, he has also posted a .554 xSLG against sinkers this season, which is relevant against Rodríguez’s primary pitch. The final game of the season creates some lineup uncertainty, but if Alonso receives his normal at-bats, his current power profile gives him the best chance to leave the yard.
Moneyline
BAL (+114)
Chris Hatfield
Betting Analyst
I'll play the Baltimore Orioles to 49%
The starting-pitching edge belongs to Birds. Shane Baz has carried a heavy workload and posted a 4.11 ERA with a 4.27 xERA, giving the Orioles the more established arm in a finale where workload should matter. Elmer Rodriguez has struggled through his brief major-league sample, recording a 5.40 ERA, 5.58 xERA and 1.58 WHIP across 26.2 innings. His sinker and four-seam fastball have allowed a .431 xSLG and .498 xSLG, giving the O's a clear path to hard contact. A more talented lineup still means the Yankees should be favored but this is a touch too much. With motivation muted and possible rest affecting the Yankees, the Orioles offer the better side at plus money.
LAD
@
SF
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 15th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The shallowest right field fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Considering Duncan Davitt's large platoon split, Freddie Freeman will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.
Total RBIs
Mookie Betts o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Mookie Betts has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 92.7-mph in the past two weeks.. Over the past two weeks, Mookie Betts's 57.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.1%.
HOU
@
ATH
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-131)
Projection 2.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The #1 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Projection 2.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Shea Langeliers is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #1 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest fences in the league.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 84°.
TB
@
PHI
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+235)
Projection 1.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 9th-best stadium in the game for run-scoring.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.
CIN
@
TOR
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Charles McAdoo u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Charles McAdoo is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-highest fence height (on average) in the league.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 4th-best of the day for hurlers.
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+139)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best field in the game for left-handed home runs.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Max Scherzer in this game.. Elly De La Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
PIT
@
DET
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Spencer Horwitz o1.5 Total Bases (+221)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Spencer Horwitz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against River Ryan in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Comerica Park has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation among all parks, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.
CLE
@
KC
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+440)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Jo Adell has hammered left-handed pitching this year, hitting .314 with a .266 ISO and nearly 50% hard hit rate.
Daniel Lynch has a pitching outs line of 15.5 so he’s expected to get plenty of runway, opening the door for multiple Adell at-bats against the lefty.
When Lynch departs, Adell will face a very vulnerable bullpen. Royals relievers rank 29th in home runs per nine innings.
Total
u8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I can’t get to the 8.5 total, and would recommend the Under to 54%.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to the Under in 14 of Messick’s 15 road starts.
While this one could be a little shorter than usual, the Guardians still have an elite bullpen backing him up – and I doubt they get too casual with their usage given they have the entire week to rest.
AZ
@
SD
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+358)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Corbin Carroll leads all Arizona Diamondbacks players in ISO (.256) and barrel rate (13.8%) against Randy Vasquez’ most-used pitchers.
Given that, it should be no surprise Carroll has a strong track record facing the righty. Carroll has hit safely in five of 15 at-bats and, more notably, generated nine hard hit balls along the way.
The Padres are also unlikely to throw their best relievers out there with a playoff game coming Tuesday.
Moneyline
AZ (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Arizona Diamondbacks must win this game, and I like them up to 59%.
Randy Vasquez owns a serviceable 4.01 ERA but sits in the fourth percentile in xERA. The Diamondbacks sit sixth in average and seventh in SLG vs. right-handed pitching in September, and are plenty capable of getting to him.
Michael Soroka sits in the 90th percentile in Pitching Run Value. He will pose a big challenge for a San Diego Padres lineup looking ahead to the playoffs.
LAA
@
SEA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Weston Wilson u1.5 Total Bases (-320)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Weston Wilson in the 8th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Weston Wilson is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst ballpark in the majors for right-handed batting average.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the best for pitching on the schedule today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for pitchers.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 6th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield among all stadiums — generally good for homers.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.
ATL
@
MIA
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+193)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Heriberto Hernandez will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. This season, Heriberto Hernandez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.2 mph compared to last year's 93.6 mph mark.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The LoanDepot Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 118° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 13.3% seasonal rate to 22.6% over the last 14 days.. In the past 14 days, Ronald Acuna Jr.'s 32.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.9%.
COL
@
CHW
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Tommy Pham u0.5 Total Hits (+169)
Projection 0.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Tommy Pham has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.. This year, there has been a decline in Tommy Pham's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.24 ft/sec last year to 26.12 ft/sec currently.. Tommy Pham's 7.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the league: 6th percentile.
Total Hits
Brenton Doyle u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a southpaw this year, Brenton Doyle has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 39% of the time.. Brenton Doyle's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 14.6% to 7%.. With a 6.11 K/BB rate this year, Brenton Doyle has demonstrated weak plate discipline, placing in the 17th percentile.
STL
@
MIL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+205)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. American Family Field projects as the #8 field in the league for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all parks, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to higher offensive output.
Total Bases
Jake Bauers u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today.. Jake Bauers's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92-mph seasonal average has decreased to 87-mph in the last 14 days.. Jake Bauers's launch angle this year (11.9°) is significantly worse than his 16.6° mark last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Bauers's true offensive skill to be a .329, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .051 disparity between that mark and his actual .380 wOBA.
TEX
@
MIN
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Burger o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #9 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .315 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .011 discrepancy.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #9 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Wyatt Langford has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the last two weeks.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
