MLB Picks

The Mets have only scored 12 times during their eight-game losing streak, and starter Kodai Senga’s underlying 3.43 xFIP suggests there’s positive regression ahead of his 7.07 ERA -- especially considering he posted a 3.00 ERA over his first 52 starts in the majors. A better outing from Senga paired with New York continuing to struggle at the dish paves the way to this total going Under the number. Even with the wind forecasted to be blowing out to left at Wrigley Field this afternoon.

Dig into the home/away splits and everything points to Cleveland. Tanner Bibee is a significantly better pitcher at home. His ERA was close to two runs lower at home in 2025, and that's already carrying into this season. Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, is awful on the road. He had an ERA jump of 2.7 in away games last season and he allowed six ERs in his lone road start this season, in Pittsburgh. The advantage carries over offensively as well, as the Guardians are posting an OPS nearly 100 points higher at home, while Baltimore’s bats cool off significantly on the road, managing just three runs per game.

This doesn't look like a pitcher's duel. Braves starter Martin Perez boasts a 3.14 ERA, 0.907 WHIP—but he's not fooling anyone, likely why he nearly lost his job.

Philly starter Taijuan Walker has posted a 7.36 ERA, 1.909 WHIP line, and opposing batters are hitting .333 with a .982 OPS against him. He's given up nine runs, 10 hits, and three homers in the first inning of his three starts this year.

Pittsburgh is hitting well, averaging five runs per game off a .734 OPS this year. Brandon Lowe has seven homers in his first 17 games, while Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn are also off to fast starts. Neither starter is likely to give their team much length tonight. There are soft spots that these lineups can take advantage of if it takes several arms to get through this game.

Ranger Suarez owns a 3.74 xFIP, which is well below his 5.02 ERA. That indicates he hasn’t pitched as poorly as the results suggest – and I’ve already highlighted the difficult competition he faced.

The Tigers are hitting .216 with a .083 ISO on the road and cold weather is expected, making this a good spot for Suarez to get back on track.

Casey Mize owns a solid 3.85 xFIP and has done a good job of neutralizing left-handed bets, setting him up for a quality start against Boston.

Both bullpens are also well rested so the managers will have plenty of options to help limit runs.

Dalton Varsho is hitting out of the two-hole and might get that all-important fifth at-bat. He is also in the middle of a power surge with three home runs over his last six games. The indoor matchup vs. Mike Soroka is also a plus. The Jays likely have plenty of info on the Canadian pitcher, who sits in the Bottom-20 in BlastCon% among all MLB starters this year. 

After a shaky start to 2026, Gilbert has calmed down, allowing just three earned across his previous two outings. deGrom has also given up just two earned runs in his last two starts. Texas and Seattle both boast solid bullpens, too. The Rangers have a 2.99 ERA, while the M’s own a 2.90 ERA. The Under cashed when these two pitchers met on April 6.