Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 8th-deepest among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for mound aces. Paul Skenes will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game. Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Bobby Witt Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 94.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 88.7-mph in the past week.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Adam Frazier will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) suggests that Adam Frazier has experienced some negative variance this year with his .206 actual batting average. Adam Frazier is in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (19.5% rate this year).

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Isbel will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a huge platoon split (Brady Singer) today.

Michael Massey is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Michael Massey will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Michael Massey has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 95.4-mph over the past 7 days.

When estimating his BABIP ability, Oneil Cruz is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Considering Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Because of Brady Singer's huge platoon split, Rowdy Tellez will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Rowdy Tellez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.9-mph over the course of the season to 94.8-mph recently.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage over Paul Skenes in today's matchup. MJ Melendez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.9-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Bryan De La Cruz will hold that advantage today. Bryan De La Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 95.7-mph over the last 7 days.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tommy Pham ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tommy Pham is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tommy Pham has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph average.

Freddy Fermin is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Freddy Fermin has put up a .327 BABIP this year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Maikel Garcia has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .238 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jared Triolo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the past 7 days, Jared Triolo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.6% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Salvador Perez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Salvador Perez has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 13.4% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 14 days.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Paul DeJong has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year's 90.4-mph average. Last year, Paul DeJong had an average launch angle of 15.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 20.8°.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Garrett Hampson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.9% to 17.6%. Garrett Hampson is very athletic, checking in at the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.9 ft/sec this year.

Joey Bart is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Joey Bart will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Joey Bart's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (17.5° over the past week) is considerably better than his 11.8° seasonal figure.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 3rd-highest level on the slate at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Yuli Gurriel has displayed strong plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile with a 1.82 K/BB rate.