Houston @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 5th-worst stadium in baseball for righty base hits. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. The weather report forecasts the 7th-best pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Yu Darvish will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today's matchup. Today, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (80th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 20.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.5°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 91.3-mph in the past 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive ability to be a .329, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .031 deviation between that figure and his actual .298 wOBA.

In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.2°, Kyle Higashioka has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 39.5° figure in the last week's worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Jason Heyward will have an advantage in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jason Heyward's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.6% up to 20%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Jurickson Profar's 72.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.8%. Based on Statcast metrics, Jurickson Profar grades out in the 92nd percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .357.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). By putting up a .270 batting average this year, Mauricio Dubon is positioned in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.5°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.9° angle over the last two weeks. Grading out in the 87th percentile, Jose Altuve has put up a .352 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage against Yu Darvish in today's game. Yordan Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Over the last 14 days, Yordan Alvarez's 55.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.4%.

The #5 field in the game for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which often leads to lower offensive output. The weather report forecasts the 7th-best pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the Houston Astros. Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.3°, Luis Arraez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.8°) in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Donovan Solano will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Over the past week, Donovan Solano's 14.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 48.9%. Checking in at the 83rd percentile, Donovan Solano sports a .335 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 11th-best hitter in the game. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Yu Darvish in today's game. Kyle Tucker has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.2-mph figure. Compared to his seasonal average of 22.1°, Kyle Tucker has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 27.3° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.8% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Alex Bregman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. In the past 14 days, Alex Bregman has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 20.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 13°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Bregman's true offensive ability to be a .342, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .017 difference between that mark and his actual .325 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. In terms of his batting average, Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year. His .223 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

Jeremy Pena's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In MLB, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Jeremy Pena has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 90.5-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph mark. Jeremy Pena has posted a .276 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. By putting up a .276 batting average this year, Jeremy Pena finds himself in the 84th percentile.

Victor Caratini hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Victor Caratini has compiled a .270 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Victor Caratini sports a .332 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. In notching a .282 batting average this year, Victor Caratini finds himself in the 90th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Manny Machado has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the last week.

Batting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Ben Gamel will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Ben Gamel hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ben Gamel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 19.6% on the season to 23.5% in the past 14 days.

Batting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Jon Singleton will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jon Singleton hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jon Singleton has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.6% seasonal rate to 27.8% over the past two weeks. Jon Singleton has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 91.9-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.1-mph mark. Over the last 14 days, Jon Singleton's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%.