Houston @ San Diego Picks & Props

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today. In the past 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.8°. Jake Cronenworth's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 40% to 46.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Merrill will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Jackson Merrill has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 97.5-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand today. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Xander Bogaerts will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.9-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 87.9-mph mark.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 12th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease today. Kyle Tucker has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 94.2-mph. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 19.5% to 24.5%.

Jason Heyward will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease today. Over the last week, Jason Heyward's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 25%. In the past week, Jason Heyward's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph of late. In the last 7 days, Jason Heyward's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side this year. His .285 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .327.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Donovan Solano is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Donovan Solano will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Donovan Solano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Donovan Solano will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Yordan Alvarez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the past 14 days, Yordan Alvarez's 51.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Alex Bregman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Alex Bregman's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (20.9° in the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 13.1° seasonal figure. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alex Bregman's true offensive ability to be a .342, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .019 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .323 wOBA.

Petco Park projects as the #26 park in the game for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. This contest is expected to have the 3rd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the same side that Framber Valdez throws from, Luis Arraez will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's launch angle of late (7.6° over the last week) is considerably worse than his 13.4° seasonal mark.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 19th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Using Statcast metrics, Yainer Diaz grades out in the 77th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .338. Using Statcast data, Yainer Diaz is in the 98th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .305. Yainer Diaz has posted a .301 batting average this year, placing in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Jeremy Pena has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.2-mph mark. Using Statcast metrics, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 88th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .277. With a .274 batting average this year, Jeremy Pena is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Jurickson Profar will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Framber Valdez in this game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.3° mark in the last 14 days. In notching a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jose Altuve is ranked in the 84th percentile.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Elias Diaz will have an advantage today. Elias Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Jon Singleton is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Jon Singleton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup. Jon Singleton hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. This year, the hardest ball Jon Singleton has connected with reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph (a reliable standard to evaluate power), grading out in the 93rd percentile. Jon Singleton is in the 76th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.2% rate this year).

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums. Brandon Lockridge will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Brandon Lockridge will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Victor Caratini has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.