Minnesota @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Richard Fitts will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Correa in today's matchup. Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which often leads to worse offense. The weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 17.3-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for pitchers. Jarren Duran's launch angle of late (0.8° in the past week's worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 9.3° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has had positive variance on his side given the .019 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

Rafael Devers projects as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage today. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Batting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand today. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Connor Wong's BABIP ability is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Royce Lewis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Royce Lewis's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 12.3% to 22.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 83rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Willi Castro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 41.9% to 48.8%. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, rising from 48.8% on the season to 75% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Batting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's game. Masataka Yoshida hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Using Statcast data, Byron Buxton ranks in the 94th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .363.

The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Christian Vazquez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.5-mph average to last season's 86.4-mph average. Christian Vazquez's launch angle this season (16.6°) is a considerable increase over his 9.6° angle last season. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Vazquez's true offensive ability to be a .273, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .020 difference between that mark and his actual .253 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. When it comes to plate discipline, Carlos Santana's skill is quite good, sporting a 1.68 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 89th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Among all parks, Fenway Park's RF dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge in today's game. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today. Enmanuel Valdez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Among all parks, Fenway Park's RF dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage over Richard Fitts in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that David Festa throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Matt Wallner is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Matt Wallner will hold the platoon advantage against Richard Fitts today. Matt Wallner will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Matt Wallner pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien as the 12th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best park in MLB for lefty BABIP. Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Edouard Julien will have the upper hand in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Edouard Julien stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Edouard Julien has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Miranda in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jose Miranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Jose Miranda's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 8.5% to 12.3%. Jose Miranda has put up a .291 batting average this year, checking in at the 95th percentile.

The #4 stadium in the game for boosting base hits to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In MLB, Fenway Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Trevor Story's launch angle from last year's 15.2° to 19.7° this season.

Ryan Jeffers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.