MLB Picks

The Blue Jays enter Wednesday 7-3 over their last 10 games, scoring 52 runs while batting .277 with a .347 OBP. Five of those seven wins came by multiple runs, and I like Toronto to create that separation again against baseball’s worst pitching staff.

Brady Basso will open for the Athletics, but he hasn't worked more than three innings in any appearance this season. That puts a large portion of this game on an Oakland staff that has struggled badly to keep the ball in the yard at home.

James Wood has been pulverizing the baseball since returning, with seven of his last 10 balls in play crushed at 100.9 mph or harder. Only three resulted in hits, suggesting more production could be coming. Wood also carries an elite Batters-Box rating against Walker Buehler, who throws nearly 80% of his pitch mix in Wood’s matchup. Through 35 elite ratings this season, Wood has surpassed this prop 54.29% of the time. Buehler has also struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 10% barrel rate, 3.00 HR/9, .286 xBA, .554 xSLG and .238 ISO over his last 30.

Texas ranks fourth in wOBA against lefties for the season, and the Rangers also sit eighth in the overall metric and sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks while averaging 5.6 runs per game. So, with Seattle rookie Kade Anderson also underwhelming at the highest level with a 5.14 xFIP, negative pitch values on both his fastball and changeup and an unintimidating 24.1% called-plus-swinging strike percentage, I like the Rangers to do the heavy lifting to send this total Over the number. Of course, Texas lefty Cody Bradford also sports a 5.48 xERA and 5.16 xFIP while allowing opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of a high-end .380 wOBA and 18.0% blast-contact rate.

I bought this at +112 with a fair price of -120 based on a 92-pitch projected count and 4.91 projected Ks. Shane Baz is needed in a big game with playoff implications. He's been a K-per-inning pitcher over the last 30 days and has pitched better in Baltimore, with more strikeouts per nine than on the road this season. The leash is there, too, as he has reached 90+ pitches in 80% of his last 15 starts, including 95+ pitches in nine of them. Five innings and five strikeouts is a modest projection today, especially after the Orioles used five arms yesterday and need to win this series. He's also in great form, ranking No. 23 in FIP among starters in the second half, even with some BABIP and LOB% numbers suggesting his 3.31 ERA could be even better.

I’m anticipating a low-scoring game tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Houston righty Hunter Brown has been solid down the stretch, and Philly ace Cristopher Sanchez has pitched at an elite level all season. Additionally, both bullpens have shown off in the second half, with Houston ranking ninth in xERA and sixth in xFIP, while Philly respectively checks in 11th and 10th. I also value that both offenses rank below average in wOBA against the respected handedness of the starting pitcher they're facing tonight.

The Yankees have a favorable matchup against Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box. New York has nine elite-rated hitters in the matchup, with the Bronx Bombers carrying a staggering .562 average hitter matchup rating in the current season dataset. Sugano has also struggled as his starts have progressed, posting a 9.69 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over his last three outings. He has allowed at least five runs in five of his last 10 poorly rated matchups. 

I bought this at +165 and would play it to +120. I'd take Over 1.5 walks at +150 or better from almost every pitcher in baseball, but even more so with a pitcher who just returned from the IL and struggled in his return. Griffin Jax lasted eight outs on 63 pitches against the Mets in his return to the rotation, but he struggled with his command, issuing two walks while giving up seven hits. That was at home. Now he heads on the road and projects for 1.66 walks on a short leash of 76 pitches, which should be a very accurate pitch count from THE BAT. Since the start of July, Jax has had multiple walks in four of seven starts, and his recent elbow injury isn't helping his command profile. It's going to take a lot of moving toward even money to get me off this prop.