Los Angeles @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in the majors for RHB base hits. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Yainer Diaz has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. From last season to this one, Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 21.6% to 11.6%. As it relates to plate discipline, Yainer Diaz's skill is quite weak, posting a 4.26 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 14th percentile.

Jeremy Pena is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in the majors for RHB base hits. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. In the last 7 days, Jeremy Pena's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal angle of 7.4°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.1°) over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in the majors for RHB base hits. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. In the past week, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 86.7-mph in the last 14 days. Jose Altuve's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 15.7% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #21 venue in the league for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to worse offense. Tyler Anderson will have the handedness advantage over Yordan Alvarez today. Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the past week, Yordan Alvarez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 93.6 mph to 87.7 mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 12th-best batter in the game. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week, Kyle Tucker's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph lately.

Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, compiling a .218 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .081 gap.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Logan O'Hoppe has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 94.7-mph. Over the past 14 days, Logan O'Hoppe's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.1%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Logan O'Hoppe's true offensive ability to be a .327, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .026 gap between that mark and his actual .301 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Neto in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Zach Neto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an advantage in today's game. Matt Thaiss's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (16.1°) is significantly better than his 11.1° mark last year. Sporting a 2.05 K/BB rate this year, Matt Thaiss has shown good plate discipline, placing in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Schanuel in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Nolan Schanuel is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. Batting from the opposite that Justin Verlander throws from, Nolan Schanuel will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Schanuel usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Meyers will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Anderson in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jake Meyers has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 12°.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. In the last week's worth of games, Eric Wagaman has displayed impressive power, recording a an 18.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power). Putting up a 96.4-mph average exit velocity over the last 7 days, Eric Wagaman has been in great form of late. Over the past week, Eric Wagaman's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 31.3% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Taylor Ward is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Taylor Ward has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 8.3% rate last season to 13.7% this year. Taylor Ward's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 17.8% to 22.5%. Taylor Ward has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .327 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .347 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Kevin Pillar is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Mauricio Dubon will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Anderson in today's game. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Placing in the 80th percentile, Mauricio Dubon has put up a .270 batting average this year.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Victor Caratini has notched a .263 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Victor Caratini has compiled a .328 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 79th percentile. Ranking in the 87th percentile, Victor Caratini has posted a .277 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Anderson throws from, Alex Bregman will have the upper hand today. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Alex Bregman will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Jordyn Adams has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, lifting balls between -4° and 26° 52.9% of the time over the last 14 days.

In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Extreme flyball bats like Jack Lopez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander. Jack Lopez's launch angle recently (32.5° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit better than his 12.6° seasonal figure.

Mickey Moniak will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Verlander today. Mickey Moniak has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week. Mickey Moniak's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, going from 13.4% on the season to 50% in the last week's worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mickey Moniak's true offensive skill to be a .305, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .024 deviation between that mark and his actual .281 wOBA.

Niko Kavadas is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. Niko Kavadas will have the handedness advantage over Justin Verlander in today's game. Niko Kavadas's launch angle recently (58° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 26.9° seasonal mark.