Chicago @ San Diego Picks & Props

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Miguel Vargas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 91.6-mph lately. Miguel Vargas's launch angle this year (20.6°) is significantly better than his 16.6° angle last year. Despite posting a .234 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Miguel Vargas has suffered from bad luck given the .080 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.7°, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 22.6° figure in the last week's worth of games. Compared to last season, Jake Cronenworth has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40% to 47.1% this season.

The #5 ballpark in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games today. Hitting from the same side that Garrett Crochet throws from, Luis Arraez will have a tough challenge today. Luis Arraez's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (6.8° in the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 11.9° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Andrew Benintendi will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Musgrove today. Andrew Benintendi hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Andrew Benintendi has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 92.3-mph.

Bryan Ramos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Bryan Ramos has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 5.3% to 11.1%. Over the past 14 days, Bryan Ramos's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.3%. Bryan Ramos has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .246 mark is deflated compared to his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Over the past 14 days, Luis Robert Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph lately. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert Jr.'s true offensive skill to be a .319, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .034 difference between that figure and his actual .285 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 91.5-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Kyle Higashioka will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 17.5% to 24.4%. Kyle Higashioka's 11.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Andrew Vaughn hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Andrew Vaughn has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days. Andrew Vaughn's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 13.9% to 18.3%.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Nicky Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Joe Musgrove in today's game. Nicky Lopez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph to 91.2-mph in the last 7 days. Nicky Lopez's launch angle this season (5.7°) is a significant increase over his 0.2° mark last season.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will have an edge in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Manny Machado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's matchup. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today's game.

Dominic Fletcher has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Dominic Fletcher will have an advantage in today's game. Dominic Fletcher has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 86.9-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 84.1-mph average. Dominic Fletcher has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .218 mark is deflated compared to his .244 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jackson Merrill's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Merrill will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jackson Merrill has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Korey Lee has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .203 mark is quite a bit lower than his .225 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's game. Gavin Sheets has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 5.8% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last 7 days. Over the past two weeks, Gavin Sheets's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.6-mph lately. Gavin Sheets has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .238 mark is considerably lower than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Donovan Solano will have an edge in today's game. Donovan Solano hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Donovan Solano will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. By putting up a .290 batting average this year, Donovan Solano has performed in the 94th percentile.

Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 16.2% on the season to 31.3% in the past week. Lenyn Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 46.3% to 52.2%. Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .259 rate is a good deal lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Garrett Crochet. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jurickson Profar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.