St. Louis @ Colorado Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 18th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jose Fermin is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup. Since the start of last season, Jose Fermin has been pulled from the game early in 50% of his appearances when starting against lefty on the mound. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Jose Fermin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Nolan Jones is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°.

Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Paul Goldschmidt will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Paul Goldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past week. Paul Goldschmidt's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 91.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 80.3-mph over the last week. Compared to his seasonal figure of 13°, Paul Goldschmidt has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (1.8°) in the past two weeks.

Ryan McMahon's BABIP talent is projected in the 76th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan McMahon is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°.

10% of the time that Ivan Herrera has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Ivan Herrera will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ivan Herrera has been very fortunate given the .022 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .320.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Sam Hilliard will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Gibson in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Sam Hilliard will hold that advantage in today's game.

Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Masyn Winn in today's matchup. Masyn Winn's launch angle of late (-2.7° in the last week's worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.7° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .317 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has been very fortunate given the .027 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .290. This year, Masyn Winn's flyball exit velocity (an advanced stat to study power) grades out in the 7th percentile at 88.1 mph.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Pedro Pages ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pedro Pages is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Pedro Pages will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Pedro Pages has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the past 7 days.

Jordan Walker has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Jordan Walker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Jordan Walker has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 10% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week. Jordan Walker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 14% on the season to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

Nolan Arenado's BABIP skill is projected in the 6th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nolan Arenado today. Nolan Arenado's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.8-mph mark last year has fallen to 86.1-mph. Over the last 7 days, Nolan Arenado's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 89.3 mph to 81.5 mph.

Kyle Gibson will have the handedness advantage over Ezequiel Tovar in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Ezequiel Tovar has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.7-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 75.8-mph in the last week's worth of games. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has been lucky this year. His .319 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280.

Kyle Gibson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brenton Doyle in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Brenton Doyle has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 10.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 3.3% in the past two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle's true offensive ability to be a .298, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .027 deviation between that mark and his actual .325 wOBA. As it relates to plate discipline, Brenton Doyle's talent is quite bad, sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 23rd percentile.

The #1 park in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Hunter Goodman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Hunter Goodman has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13.1% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Michael Toglia is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Michael Toglia will hold that advantage today.

Charlie Blackmon is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Gibson throws from, Charlie Blackmon will have an advantage today.

Kyle Freeland will hold the platoon advantage over Brendan Donovan in today's game. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Brendan Donovan will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Over the past week, Brendan Donovan's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 90.9 mph to 84.8 mph.

The #1 park in the majors for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Aaron Schunk will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Victor Scott has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Victor Scott has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .214 mark is a good deal lower than his .264 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cave in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest weather of all games today at 88°. Jake Cave will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Gibson today.

Kyle Freeland will have the handedness advantage over Lars Nootbaar today. Out of all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Lars Nootbaar in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week. Over the past 7 days, Lars Nootbaar's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 94.5 mph to 80.5 mph.

Brendan Rodgers has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.