Baltimore @ Minnesota Picks & Props

Pablo Lopez will have the handedness advantage against Jordan Westburg today. Jordan Westburg pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jordan Westburg in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Jordan Westburg's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%. Jordan Westburg has shown poor plate discipline this year, checking in at the 13th percentile with a 4.21 K/BB rate.

Gunnar Henderson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson in today's game. Gunnar Henderson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week. In the past week's worth of games, Gunnar Henderson's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.9%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gunnar Henderson's true offensive skill to be a .364, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .019 deviation between that figure and his actual .383 wOBA.

The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Target Field. Out of all the teams today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles. Carlos Correa has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9% seasonal rate has decreased to 4% in the past two weeks. In the past two weeks, Carlos Correa's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 92 mph to 88.4 mph. Over the past 14 days, Carlos Correa's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.9°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.2°.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Cedric Mullins will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pablo Lopez today. Cedric Mullins has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Over the past week, Cedric Mullins's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90-mph over the course of the season to 99.3-mph lately.

Colton Cowser's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Pablo Lopez today. Colton Cowser has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Royce Lewis ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Royce Lewis is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Royce Lewis will have the upper hand today. Royce Lewis will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Pablo Lopez throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand today. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Ryan Jeffers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich today. Ryan Jeffers will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ryan Mountcastle's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Ryan Mountcastle has been unlucky this year, posting a .313 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .016 disparity. In notching a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Ryan Mountcastle finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Byron Buxton ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Byron Buxton is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Byron Buxton will have the handedness advantage over Cade Povich in today's matchup. Byron Buxton will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Adley Rutschman's launch angle this season (18.8°) is a significant increase over his 12.5° angle last year.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Cade Povich. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage today. Carlos Santana has shown favorable plate discipline this year, grading out in the 90th percentile with a 1.64 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Willi Castro will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 41.9% to 48.9%. Over the last 14 days, Willi Castro's 60.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.9%.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Ramon Urias has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 93.2-mph. In the last week's worth of games, Ramon Urias's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 37.9%. Ramon Urias has recorded a .329 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Christian Vazquez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's game. Christian Vazquez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Christian Vazquez's launch angle from last year's 9.6° to 16.1° this season. Christian Vazquez has been unlucky this year, posting a .253 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .272 — a .019 gap.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. The Minnesota Twins infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Anthony Santander ranks in the 100th percentile with a 22.5° launch angle, which is among the most flyball-inducing angles in the game. With a .345 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Anthony Santander is ranked in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manuel Margot in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Manuel Margot is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Manuel Margot will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Manuel Margot will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which often leads to more offense. Kyle Farmer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Farmer will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Kyle Farmer has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 24.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.9°.