Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. In the last 7 days, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 94 mph to 91.8 mph. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4.6°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.5°. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive ability to be a .338, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .020 difference between that mark and his actual .358 wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have the upper hand today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Rortvedt can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Ben Rortvedt sits with a .321 BABIP this year.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Junior Caminero hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Junior Caminero tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Richie Palacios will have the upper hand today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Richie Palacios has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Richie Palacios pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Richie Palacios has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .307 rate is a fair amount lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's matchup. Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Connor Wong's BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Connor Wong will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last year's 87.7-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.1°, Jose Caballero has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.5° angle over the past two weeks.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge today. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Logan Driscoll will have an edge today. Logan Driscoll has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP.

Ceddanne Rafaela's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (26.1° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 17.7° seasonal mark.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Nick Sogard pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the past week, Nick Sogard's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.1% up to 8.3%. Nick Sogard's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 18.8% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

Trevor Story is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). In the majors, Fenway Park's left field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Trevor Story has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the last 14 days.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Taylor Walls hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. In the last two weeks, Taylor Walls's 53.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 36.3%. Taylor Walls has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 81st percentile with a 2.02 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks. Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Tyler O'Neill has significantly improved, with an increase from 12.4% last year to 17.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park projects as the #4 park in the league for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage today. Masataka Yoshida hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Vaughn Grissom's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park grades out as the #4 park in MLB for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Vaughn Grissom has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Vaughn Grissom will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.302) may lead us to conclude that Vaughn Grissom has suffered from bad luck this year with his .192 actual wOBA.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.