MLB Picks

Conditions are ideal for power, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures around 80 degrees — a strong setup for home runs. Jake Burger gets a premium matchup against Zach Eflin, who is coming off back surgery and posted the second-worst HR/9 among starters with 60+ innings last season. Burger, hitting out of the cleanup spot, is 3-for-7 with a home run against Eflin in his career. THE BAT projects a fair price around +375, making current numbers appealing. There are multiple ways to attack this game, especially with Texas yet to name a starter. Samuel Basallo at +550 or better also projects as +EV for the Baltimore Orioles. Betting on the earliest game of the slate is also an easy decision. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jacob deGrom to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 73 pitches.. Scott Barry grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in today's game.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Jacob deGrom will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The Phillies are sending talented prospect Andrew Painter to the hill but we don't know what we'll get in his big league debut. After all, he had a 5.26 ERA in 26 minor league starts last year and the Nationals have some talented bats like James Wood and CJ Abrams at the top of their order. Meanwhile, the Nats are using relief pitcher P.J. Poulin as an opener and he had a 3.93 xERA in 24 2/3 innings last year. I don't trust him against a dangerous Phillies lineup led by Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. Especially with a stiff 13 mpg breeze blowing towards the outfield at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park today.

When estimating his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 5th-most favorable hitting conditions of the day.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Painter throws from, James Wood will have an advantage in today's game.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Bubba Chandler in this game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best field in baseball for righty home runs.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Williamson throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an edge in today's game.

The Chicago White Sox are listed at +134 on the moneyline, while I have them closer to -103 favorites, so this is a number I’m willing to back. Janson Junk gets the start for Miami, and his profile sets up well for Chicago. He’s a command-based pitcher with a low strikeout rate and limited swing-and-miss, which should allow the White Sox to consistently put the ball in play and generate offense. That’s especially important for their left-handed bats—Munetaka Murakami, Andrew Benintendi, and Colson Montgomery—who all project well in this matchup. Junk also isn’t a pitcher who typically works deep into games, so there’s a clear path for Chicago to elevate his pitch count and force Miami into the bullpen early. If that happens, the advantage swings even further, as the White Sox should be able to apply sustained pressure against the Marlins’ middle relief. 

Throwing 92.8 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Erick Fedde places in the 84th percentile.. The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Owen Caissie, Griffin Conine).. Doug Eddings profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be umping today.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Erick Fedde's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (64.1% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

Jesus Sanchez was brought in as a righty killer, and he's got the most exposure to Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner, boasting a 1.273 OPS with two home runs against him.

With the bottom of the Blue Jays' order doing damage, George Springer will find himself in an RBI situation today against Rockies starter Ryan Feltner, cashing in on this plus-money line.

It’s Tuesday—you have to have a home run bet in the account—and I’m hitting the button on Matt Olson. I price Olson closer to +250 to go deep in this matchup, and he has plenty of factors working in his favor. Olson is facing Aaron Civale of the Athletics, a low-velocity, sinker-heavy pitcher—and that’s a pitch Olson absolutely crushes from right-handers. Civale is also a fly-ball pitcher, which becomes a problem with the weather conditions at Truist Park on Tuesday: 83 degrees with the wind blowing out at 9 mph. Give me Olson to hit a home run. This bet checks every box—including the revenge narrative—and it’s worth noting he’s already taken Civale deep once in just three career at-bats.

I don’t usually put a lot of weight into batter vs. pitcher data given the small samples, but it’s hard to ignore that Brent Rooker has taken José Suárez deep three times in just five at-bats — especially with Rooker sitting at +475. Rooker had a strong spring and may be off to a slow start, but the power is real. He has legitimate 40-HR upside, which puts him in a rare tier of hitters. Suárez is more of a bullpen arm being stretched into a starting role due to the injury to Spencer Strider, which adds risk. The environment isn’t elite, but 80-degree weather in Atlanta with a total of 9 is still solid. Fair value on this HR prop is closer to +400, and Rooker projects similarly to names like Ronald Acuña Jr., Shea Langeliers, and Austin Riley — all of whom are priced shorter.

Cedric Mullins is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. The #8 field in baseball for boosting home runs to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Woodruff in today's game.

As it relates to his home run talent, Junior Caminero ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 8th-best stadium in the game for righty home runs.. American Family Field has the 7th-shallowest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.

Mike Trout doesn't need much of an invitation, and Taillon is practically rolling out the red carpet. 

Ten home runs and nine walks in just 13.1 spring training innings tell you that this is a pitcher who can't find the zone and is getting destroyed when he does. 

Trout has already taken Taillon deep in their career matchup. The Angeles slugger launched two bombs on Opening Day at Houston, and I’ll back him to do it again Tuesday night at Wrigley.

 

José Soriano is riding a 29.2% strikeout rate and a jaw-dropping 41.3% whiff rate through his 2026 opener. This follows a strong spring where the Los Angeles Angels righty struck out 13 across 11 ⅔ and eight per nine frames in 2025. 

Cold, heavy air at Wrigley Field plays right into Soriano's hard sinker and devastating slider combo. Back him to punch out at least five on Tuesday night.

Carson Benge has been hitting the cover off the ball since making his MLB debut this season, and with a number this high opposite a pitcher who can't miss bats, it's all about value.

The Mets make consistent contact, which will bode well against Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante, who doesn't miss bats and boasted the fourth-highest ERA in MLB among qualified starters last year.

There is fantastic value on backing Red Sox third baseman Marcelo Mayer to hit a home run at +800 . The 23-year-old flashed power in his brief MLB stint last year and his peripherals have been outstanding this season. While he hasn't hit a homer so far, he has two doubles and his hard-hit rate (57.1%) and barrel rate (28.6%) are elite. He also has the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown. Brown is a stud but that hard-throwing righty gave up 10 dingers in 14 home starts last year and Houston's relievers are vulnerable to the long ball.

The Astros clobbered the Red Sox 8-1 yesterday and have a significant pitching advantage today. Boston is starting Brayan Bello who was in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (4.48) and xBA (.258) last year. Meanwhile, Houston's Hunter Brown was third in AL Cy Young voting after pitching to a 2.43 ERA with an OBA of .201. Brown made his season debut last week and fanned nine through 4 2/3 scoreless innings but walked four batters. Control wasn't an issue for Brown last year so expect him settle in and mow down batters tonight. 

Matt Chapman has made a lot of powerful contact out of the gate. He is responsible for the three hardest hit balls the Giants have this season, indicating the production is not far off.

Chapman has enjoyed a lot of success against German Marquez in his career. He is 6-15 with four hits going for extra bases, three of which left the park.

Giants ace Logan Webb was roughed up in his season debut. That said, he's a proven vet with a 2.94 FIP in 132 starts over the last four years so expect him to bounce back. Meanwhile, German Marquez makes his Padres debut and he'll be excited to play at pitcher-friendly Petco Park after spending his entire career at Coors Field. He gets a favorable matchup against the the Giants who are last in the majors in OPS (.441) while sitting in the bottom 3 in barrel rate and hard hit rate. The Friars haven't been much better, ranking 28th in OPS (.512) and 26th in barrel rate.

Giancarlo Stanton’s raw power makes him attractive here. Over four games, he’s posted one of the highest chase contact numbers of his career. 

The sample is hardly meaningful but if it can continue for another night, it will give him a boost in this matchup as Gilbert is a chase reliant pitcher. Stanton gets to one and it’s likely going to be hit quite hard.

Logan Gilbert's 32% strikeout rate ranked in the 94th percentile last season, and his 33% whiff rate sat 93rd. Those are not empty numbers. He posted an 11.9 K/9 last year across 131 innings, and the New York Yankees are the right matchup to push him over this number. If Gilbert records 18 outs, his strikeout total projects to just over 8. I’ll take that at this price point.

Greene is hitting just .176 this season, but he finally found a bit of an offensive rhythm on Monday, finishing 2-for-5 with a pair of singles. Sometimes, all a hitter needs is some confidence to get them going, and Greene has homered against Pfaadt before, who gave up 26 bombs last season. Greene clubbed 36 bombs last year as well. 

Dingler is off to a red-hot start in this young 2026 campaign, batting .333 with five RBIs already. The catcher drove in a run in Monday’s loss, and he’s recorded at least one RBI in three of Detroit’s four games so far. He has an RBI against Pfaadt in two at-bats. 

Bibee’s primary flaw is the home run ball. He allowed 1.33 HR/9 a year ago despite a 10-point uptick in groundball rate.

Max Muncy posted 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitchers a season ago, tagging them for a 157 wRC+ with substantial power (.247 ISO). He hits Bibee’s three-pitch mix against lefties (primarily four-seamers and change-ups with a dash of cutters) well, with decreased whiff rates and increased effectiveness against all three offerings.

Shohei Ohtani’s arsenal of pitches is downright filthy (115 Stuff+), and he was dominant at home a season ago (.151 BAA, 1.71 ERA). 

There’s a fully stocked bullpen behind him after Sunday’s off day and yesterday’s three-pitcher outing, so they should limit a Cleveland Guardians lineup with poor numbers (.279 wOBA, 79 wRC+). 

Tanner Bibee (104 Stuff+) has been a dependable arm, recording an xERA below 3.75 in each of the last three seasons (87 starts). The weather favors these two strong starting pitchers, as there’ll be rain in Southern California.