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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 28, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+175 
|
o8.5 -116 
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.14 |
-180 
|
u9.0 -119 
|
-1.5 +115
|
Cincinnati
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Lowders last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 on grass.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Petersons last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Petersons last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.58 |
-185
|
o7.5 +105
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
3.31 |
+200
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 6-2 in their last 8 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 9-0 in Tigers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Tigers last 4 vs. National League West.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.42 |
-145
|
o8.5 +105
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
4.16 |
+140
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -125
|
Miami
- Over is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts on grass.
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Perezs last 5 starts overall.
Washington
- Under is 6-0-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 home games.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 vs. National League East.
- Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games as a home underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
-105
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.11 |
+104 
|
u8.0 -114
|
+1.5 -170
|
Houston
- Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 starts vs. National League East.
- Over is 8-1 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games.
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-1 in Scotts last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Mets are 6-0 in Scotts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Mets are 5-0 in Scotts last 5 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Carson Benge o0.5 Total RBIs (+234)
o0.5+234
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+125
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.29 |
-126
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 on grass.
- Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jose Ramirez o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
o0.5+206
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+120
|
o7.5 +101
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
3.96 |
-126
|
u7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +170
|
San Diego
- Under is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-2 in Padres last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Rays last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+197)
o0.5+197
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.90 |
+206
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
5.80 |
-210
|
u9.0 -119
|
-1.5 +100
|
Colorado
- Rockies are 9-0 in Suganos last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Suganos last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Rockies are 5-0 in Suganos last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 9-1 in Braves last 10 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Braves last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. National League West.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.90 |
+152
|
o7.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -149
|
|
4.37 |
-148
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +150
|
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
- Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 8-0 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-1 in Ceases last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+252)
o0.5+252
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+145
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.01 |
-153
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +140
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Sandovals last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Schlittlers last 6 starts vs. American League East.
- Under is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Yankees are 30-12 in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Caleb Durbin o0.5 Total RBIs (+321)
o0.5+321
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
+165
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.57 |
-172
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +126
|
Texas
- Under is 8-0 in Bradfords last 8 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 overall.
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 7-0 in Hendersons last 7 starts as a home favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendersons last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Brewers are 8-0 in Hendersons last 8 home starts.
- Under is 6-0 in Hendersons last 6 home starts.
Top Projection
Cody Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+436)
o0.5+436
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.65 |
+116
|
o8.0 -159
|
+2.5 -315
|
|
4.74 |
-123
|
u9.0 -120
|
-2.5 +240
|
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.41 |
-110
|
o5.0 -500
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.99 |
+105
|
u7.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -170
|
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Pirates last 8 during game 1 of a series.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games.
St. Louis
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 overall.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as an underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 on grass.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.54 |
-126
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.15 |
+125
|
u11.0 -455
|
+1.5 -140
|
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-0 in Painters last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Painters last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Painters last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
LA Angels
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Angels last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Detmers' last 4 starts as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
o0.5+200
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.98 |
-112
|
o9.5 -113
|
-1.5 +130 
|
|
5.21 |
+120
|
u10.0 -114
|
+1.5 -130
|
Baltimore
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games.
- Orioles are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Athletics
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+169
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.72 |
-125
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.87 |
+115
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -145
|
Arizona
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 overall.
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.61 |
+102
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
4.39 |
-110
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +161
|
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Bennetts last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Over is 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts on grass.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Bennetts last 4 starts overall.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 6-0 in Warrens last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Yankees are 5-0 in Warrens last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
o1.5+200
CIN
@
CHC
Fri, Aug 28 • 2:20 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ian Happ o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
What a week it’s been for Ian Happ. The Cubs outfielder leads the majors with 10 RBI over that span while batting .350 with a ridiculous 1.335 OPS and three dingers to boot. Happ has hit eight of his 23 home runs against either the sinker or the slider – Lowder’s two main offerings. Happ’s on fire and we’re getting a great price on him to go yard again. Play him up to 21¢.
Moneyline
CHC (-183)
Chris Faria
Betting Analyst
LAD
@
DET
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Shohei Ohtani u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.95
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Comerica Park has the 2nd-deepest centerfield fences among all parks.. The weather report expects the 4th-most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Shohei Ohtani will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.. Shohei Ohtani has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 23.7% rate last year has fallen to 16.5% this year.. Shohei Ohtani has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 16.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days.
Total Bases
Hunter Feduccia u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Hunter Feduccia is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.. The weather report expects the 4th-most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hunter Feduccia hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Hunter Feduccia in today's game.. In the last two weeks, Hunter Feduccia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.
MIA
@
WAS
Fri, Aug 28 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Abimelec Ortiz will have an advantage today.. Abimelec Ortiz pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Abimelec Ortiz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+212)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, CJ Abrams ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The weather report forecasts the 5th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. CJ Abrams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
HOU
@
NYM
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christopher Morel o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for hitting of all games today.. Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Strikeouts Thrown
Christian Scott u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105)
Projection 5.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Scott to throw 85 pitches in this game (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-best for hitting of all games today.. Christian Scott wasn't on when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and posted 1 Ks.. Christian Scott has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching an 11.18 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.07 — a 1.11 K/9 difference.
KC
@
CLE
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Michael Wacha u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+130)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Nothing more scrumptious than a pitcher without a high strikeout rate taking on a team that does not strike out at a high rate. Michael Wacha draws a Cleveland Guardians lineup that has stayed under an 18.5% strikeout rate over its last 21 games, including just 16.3% over its last six. Across the team’s last 60 at-bats, only two hitters have a strikeout rate above 18.3%. The Guardians also have the highest contact rate in baseball over their last 12 games. Wacha sports the second-lowest average strikeout rate on Batters-Box at 15.67% and has stayed under 20% across his last five starts and overall on the road.
Total RBIs
Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+217)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 stadium in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Over the last 14 days, Salvador Perez has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9.8% to 14.8%.
SD
@
TB
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Casey Mize in today's game.. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Cedric Mullins will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the past week, Cedric Mullins's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 10%.. Cedric Mullins's launch angle this year (26.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 23.3° angle last year.
Total RBIs
Ty France o0.5 Total RBIs (+211)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Ty France is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane McClanahan throws from, Ty France will have the upper hand today.. Ty France has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
COL
@
ATL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Tomoyuki Sugano o3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+110)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Tomoyuki Sugano is in a tough spot against an Atlanta Braves lineup that has been rated as one of the best on the day by Batters-Box. Sugano is averaging 5.26 innings per start while allowing nearly three runs per start, and he draws a Braves lineup featuring seven elite-rated bats in the current-season dataset. Six of their nine hitters in this matchup will bat from the left side, and the last 30 left-handed hitters Sugano has faced own a .390 xBA, .684 xSLG, .414 xwOBA and .286 ISO. Four runs may seem like a lot, but this is a favorable matchup. If you are worried about the errors, take the Braves’ first-five team total over. NEVER PAY JUICE FOR FOUR RUNS.
Total Bases
Hunter Goodman o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 12th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 10th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 83°.
SEA
@
TOR
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
George Springer is 2-for-3 against Hancock with an extra-base hit, and coming off a "garbage time" homer just last night. He'll sit on the four-seamer that Hancock has given up nine homers on this season. His shoulder issue looks to be in the past; let's rock with the veteran down the stretch.
Strikeouts Thrown
Dylan Cease o7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Not only has Dylan Cease gone over this number in four of his last six starts, but he's facing a Seattle Mariners team that has been punched out 1,159 times this season - good for eighth-most in baseball.
Cease is rocking the highest strikeout percentage of his career (an astronomical 36.1%) for the Toronto Blue Jays, and has dominated the Mariners throughout his career, rocking a .162 xBA while striking them out at a 30% clip across 82 at-bats - a sample size we can get behind. Look for him to continue his Cy Young campaign tonight.
BOS
@
NYY
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Paul Goldschmidt o0.5 Total Home Runs (+414)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
Total
u7.5 (-126)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
TEX
@
MIL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Jackson Chourio has real power appeal with two homers in his last six games, a 52.9% hard-hit rate, and an 11.8% barrel rate. Bradford’s air-contact profile and the Rangers’ recent bullpen homer issues give Chourio multiple paths to leave the yard, even without elite fly-ball volume.
Total
o7.5 (-107)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
The Over 7.5 is a moderate but playable angle with both lineups in respectable form. Texas owns a 111 wRC+ over its last 12 games, while Milwaukee is swinging it even better. The Rangers’ bullpen has allowed hard contact and home run damage lately, giving the Brewers late upside.
CHW
@
MIN
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Dean Kremer u2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-118)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Chicago White Sox have been on a heater, but tonight presents a much tougher matchup against Twins veteran Dean Kremer. The right-hander has been nails across his last five starts, limiting hard-hit and barreled balls while posting a 3.54 expected ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The White Sox have also shown significant home-and-away splits, with their offense falling off once they leave The Rate. On the road this season, they own a league-average 100 wRC+, .315 wOBA and 25.1% strikeout rate. After scoring 21 runs across their last two games, expect the South Siders to come back down to earth.
Total RBIs
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as the league's 2nd-best home run hitter.. Munetaka Murakami is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Munetaka Murakami will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today's game.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams today.
PIT
@
STL
Fri, Aug 28 • 8:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences among all parks.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 81°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Strikeouts Thrown
Jared Jones u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 4.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 77 pitches in this game (least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Busch Stadium profiles as the #27 venue in MLB for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jared Jones today.
PHI
@
LAA
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:38 PM ET
Total Hits
Kyle Schwarber u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 park in the game for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Reid Detmers will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Schwarber in today's game.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kyle Schwarber in today's game.. Despite posting a .373 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has been lucky given the .024 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Total Hits
MB
Moises Ballesteros u0.5 Total Hits (+154)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Moises Ballesteros has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 35% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.. The #3 park in the game for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Moises Ballesteros has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.. Sporting a .269 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Moises Ballesteros is positioned in the 5th percentile.. Moises Ballesteros has compiled a .212 batting average this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.
BAL
@
ATH
Fri, Aug 28 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #2 field in the league for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-shortest average fence height in the league.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the slate at 98°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Carlos Cortes u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 20th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Carlos Cortes is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. This year, Carlos Cortes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 36% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. Carlos Cortes hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Carlos Cortes has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past 14 days.
AZ
@
SF
Fri, Aug 28 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.6-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Rafael Devers will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.6-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.. Rafael Devers will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today's game.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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