MLB Picks

Michael Lorenzen faces a tough test in Coors Field against a Rockies lineup featuring multiple elite-rated bats, with Liam Hicks standing out as the top target. Hicks has been seeing the ball well, covering most of Lorenzen’s pitch mix and producing strong numbers versus right-handed pitching, including a .346 average and .955 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances. Colorado pitching has struggled badly at home against lefties, allowing high averages, strong slugging, and elevated hard-hit rates. With Coors amplifying contact quality, Hicks profiles as a live home run threat at an appealing price in this matchup tonight in Coors.

The Cleveland Guardians rank 24th in wOBA, and 29th in ISO, against righties at home since June 1, and are missing Jose Ramirez.

Davis Martin has allowed only five runs through six starts against Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. 

It'll be tough for the Chicago White Sox to score enough to push this Over.

Bet the Under to -125.

Junior Caminero’s six game home run streak will draw attention, but I prefer Yandy Diaz in this matchup. Diaz profiles better against Royals right hander Stephen Kolek, whose pitch mix grades over 50% below league average per FanGraphs. Diaz handles the two best pitches, especially sinkers, where he is hitting .414 with a 1.066 OPS and .479 wOBA, and still owns strong numbers versus fastballs. He also brings elite recent form with a 71.4% hard hit rate over his last 30 plate appearances against righties. With Kolek allowing heavy contact and elevated fly balls at home, Diaz offers the better value.

I think this is a letdown spot for the Tigers after coming off a solid series against the walking corpse we refer to as the New York Yankees. They now draw a red hot Rangers team led by Nathan Eovaldi, who has been striking out hitters at a very high rate. On the other side, the Tigers have not been striking out a ton, but this is still one of the most inconsistent offenses in baseball. Over their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, six bats own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with three of those six sitting at 30% or worse. With Eovaldi carrying a strikeout rate above 30% over his last three outings, I expect that success to continue tonight. Take this down to -130 if you must.

Seattle Mariners right hander Bryce Miller has been on a tear lately, posting a near 40% strikeout rate over his last five outings. He gets a strong matchup tonight against one of the most swing happy, lowest contact teams in baseball in the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos rank second worst in strikeout rate and swinging strike rate this season, while also sitting third worst in contact rate. Those issues have carried over on the road, and in their last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, multiple hitters are carrying strikeout rates north of 23%. At plus money, this feels like a strong spot to back Miller.

Targeting the Dodgers for first five runs is always a big ask, but this is not a typical matchup. They draw a right hander struggling badly, carrying a 10.03 ERA, 7.80 xERA and 2.40 WHIP over his last three starts, with similar regression across his last five, including elite hard contact and barrel issues. Los Angeles remains red hot despite a loss to Oakland last night, posting a 131 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .807 OPS and .167 ISO over the last 12 games. With Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy already in focus, the full lineup offers plenty of upside in this spot tonight.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.